Final
MIL2–3
Final
SDLine score not available yet.
Postgame Review
What changed after first pitch.
Result
Padres won · Brewers 2, Padres 3
Pregame edge
Padres · held up
Pregame Snapshot
Before first pitch, NYX expected…
Even Matchup
52% to Win
The Padres enter tonight with the deeper bullpen and a more rested bullpen. The Brewers counter with a strong starter, leaving NYX to call it essentially even.
Toss-Up
Updated after confirmed lineups. Model-based estimate, not betting odds.
Brewers also brings
- •Better starter projection
Prediction updated: 21h ago · Data may be staleNYX Engine v2.2Walk-Forward ValidatedLineups: PendingStarters: Probable
Prediction stale
Why NYX Sees the Edge
- ✓Better bullpen quality
- ✓Lower bullpen fatigue
- ✓Better recent form
What Changed
How the NYX read moved before first pitch.
- Initial Read52%
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Home Advantage
Padres home57%35–26
Brewers road59%33–23
Home Edge-2
Team Story
Padres has been the stronger side at home this season (57%). Brewers counters with a capable starter, but Padres enters with the edge on the bats and the bullpen edge.
Game Notes
- •Manny Machado leads the Padres with 23 HR
- •Jake Bauers leads the Brewers with 21 HR
- •Fernando Tatis Jr. leads the Padres with 130 hits
- •Brice Turang leads the Brewers with 119 hits
- •Manny Machado ranks #23 in MLB in HR (23)
Brewers @ Padres
NYX Engine v2.2Walk-Forward Validated
Key Drivers
- Starting Pitching+21
- Offense+11
- Run Prevention+4
- Bullpen+3
- Context & Health+3
What Could Flip It
- •If Milwaukee Brewers starting pitching delivers, it could swing the game
- •If Milwaukee Brewers run prevention delivers, it could swing the game
- •Home & Environment is near-even and could decide it
Overall MatchupBrewersPadres
80
76
Matchup Scorecard
93
Starting Pitching
72
88
Bullpen
91
57
Offense
68
83
Run Prevention
79
70
Context & Health
67
Home starter
Casey Mize
ProbableData quality: Medium
▸Show stats
Season stats unavailable
Arsenal unavailable
Source: MLB schedule
Away starter
Logan Henderson
ProbableData quality: Medium
▸Show stats
Season stats unavailable
Arsenal unavailable
Source: MLB schedule
Injury Report
Brewers
9 on the IL- PBrandon Woodruff60-Day IL· 85 · Elite Impact· at injury date 2026-07-05
- SSCooper Pratt10-Day IL· 58 · Medium Impact· at injury date 2026-08-09
- RFSal Frelick10-Day IL· 55 · Medium Impact· at injury date 2026-07-18
- PAngel Zerpa60-Day IL· 22 · Low Impact· at injury date 2026-04-26
- PBrian Fitzpatrick60-Day IL· Unknown Impact
- PJoel Kuhnel15-Day IL· Unknown Impact
- PJoJo Romero15-Day IL· Unknown Impact
- PQuinn Priester60-Day IL· Unknown Impact
- PRob Zastryzny60-Day IL· Unknown Impact
Impact at injury date — the player's value as of his IL placement, frozen at that date. Context only, not predictive, not an engine input.
Padres
9 on the IL- PNick Pivetta60-Day IL· 83 · High Impact· at injury date 2026-04-13
- LFSamad Taylor10-Day IL· 74 · High Impact· at injury date 2026-07-08
- PDavid Morgan15-Day IL· 52 · Medium Impact· at injury date 2026-06-28
- DHMiguel Andujar10-Day IL· 51 · Medium Impact· at injury date 2026-07-20
- PJason Adam60-Day IL· 48 · Medium Impact· at injury date 2026-06-30
- LFRamón Laureano60-Day IL· 46 · Medium Impact· at injury date 2026-05-31
- PBryan Hoeing60-Day IL· Unknown Impact
- PJoe Musgrove60-Day IL· Unknown Impact
- PLucas Giolito15-Day IL· Unknown Impact
Impact at injury date — the player's value as of his IL placement, frozen at that date. Context only, not predictive, not an engine input.
Top Offensive Performers
- PadresJackson Merrill1-3 · 1 HR · 2 RBI
- BrewersJackson Chourio3-4
- BrewersJake Bauers1-4 · 1 2B
Milwaukee Brewers holds a 19.9-pt model edge (San Diego Padres 46.2 vs Milwaukee Brewers 66.1). Confidence 85% (high data). Analysis edge only — not betting advice.
Last 10 Meetings
Limited recent H2H historyBrewers
L
Padres
W
Oldest → most recent · completed MLB games
Milwaukee Brewers
form 54OPS.734
AVG.242