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Washington Nationals @ San Francisco Giants

Final

Oracle Park

Washington Nationals6

San Francisco Giants3

Bottom 9

Game data: 1h ago

Matchup Edge

high dataconf 100%

San Francisco Giants (home)vsWashington Nationals (away)

San Francisco Giants edge +20.6

San Francisco Giants holds a 20.6-pt model edge (San Francisco Giants 65.2 vs Washington Nationals 44.6). Confidence 100% (high data). Analysis edge only — not betting advice.

Each score is 0–100, higher = stronger side. Left value / bar = San Francisco Giants (home), right value = Washington Nationals (away).

48Starter35

Probable starter's recent form & expected runs — model weight 25%.

98Batting45

Lineup run production (OPS / xwOBA basis) — model weight 25%.

50Bullpen47

Relief corps: recent fatigue (50%), ERA (30%), WHIP (20%) — model weight 20%.

65Total45

Weighted blend — starter 25 · pressure 15 · batting 25 · bullpen 20 · home 5 · data 10.

COMMAND_RISKHIGH_PRESSURE_WALK_RATEWalk riskMELTDOWN_PRONE

Analysis edge — not betting advice.

Andrew Alvarez

form 39

last 15 days · 246 pitches

Velo86.8

Velo Δ0.0

Spin2463

Whiff%22.2%

CSW%24.0%

xwOBA.390

K%18.5%

BB%14.8%

HardHit%27.4%

Walk risk

Adrian Houser

form 48

last 15 days · 502 pitches

Velo91.0

Velo Δ0.0

Spin2116

Whiff%22.7%

CSW%30.7%

xwOBA.414

K%24.6%

BB%8.2%

HardHit%20.6%

No flags

Stress Situation Performance (Pressure Score)

Pressure Score is a baseball analytics metric derived from public play-by-play and pitch-level data. It does not measure a player's actual mental health or psychology.

Andrew Alvarez · Pressure

36GOOD

last 15d · 54 pressure PA · conf 100%

High-Press PA7

RISP xwOBA.359

Late&Close PA0

K%18.5%

BB%14.8%

Whiff%22.2%

Shutdown/Melt3/4

Strike%58.1%

CSW%24.0%

Command riskPressure walksMeltdown-prone

Proxy pressure index — analytics only, not a psychological measure.

Adrian Houser · Pressure

38GOOD

last 15d · 56 pressure PA · conf 100%

High-Press PA4

RISP xwOBA.358

Late&Close PA0

K%23.2%

BB%8.9%

Whiff%21.1%

Shutdown/Melt2/2

Strike%60.3%

CSW%29.9%

No flags

Proxy pressure index — analytics only, not a psychological measure.

Andrew Alvarez · situation splits (30d)

Situation	PA	xwOBA	K%	BB%	Whiff%	XBH%	Score
High pressure	7	.313	28.6%	28.6%	11.1%	0.0%	42
RISP	14	.356	21.4%	14.3%	12.5%	0.0%	36
2-out RISP	7	.368	28.6%	0.0%	9.1%	0.0%	45
Bases loaded	2	.000	50.0%	0.0%	33.3%	0.0%	92
Full count	14	.348	28.6%	28.6%	30.8%	0.0%	44
After hit/walk	21	.234	23.8%	14.3%	22.0%	0.0%	59

Adrian Houser · situation splits (30d)

Situation	PA	xwOBA	K%	BB%	Whiff%	XBH%	Score
High pressure	4	.358	50.0%	25.0%	50.0%	0.0%	43
RISP	14	.155	50.0%	0.0%	26.1%	7.1%	67
2-out RISP	7	.122	57.1%	0.0%	28.6%	0.0%	73
Bases loaded	2	.366	50.0%	0.0%	50.0%	0.0%	48
Full count	13	.386	23.1%	23.1%	18.2%	0.0%	34
After hit/walk	24	.663	0.0%	20.8%	12.2%	29.2%	7

Andrew Alvarez arsenal

Pitch	Usage	Velo	Spin	Whiff%	CSW%	PutAway%	xwOBA
Slider	30.1%	83.3	2627	32.4%	28.4%	13.0%	.396
4-Seam Fastball	28.1%	91.7	2301	8.8%	20.3%	4.8%	.495
Curveball	23.2%	82.7	2688	28.0%	24.6%	12.1%	.307
Sinker	15.0%	91.2	2248	10.0%	21.6%	0.0%	.140
Changeup	3.7%	85.2	1817	50.0%	22.2%	0.0%	—

Adrian Houser arsenal

Pitch	Usage	Velo	Spin	Whiff%	CSW%	PutAway%	xwOBA
Sinker	42.2%	94.4	2214	11.4%	34.9%	5.9%	.477
4-Seam Fastball	21.9%	95.2	2276	25.0%	25.4%	13.0%	.421
Changeup	15.1%	84.5	1556	30.8%	21.1%	22.7%	.179
Curveball	11.9%	81.8	1910	25.0%	30.0%	0.0%	.600
Slider	8.8%	88.2	2487	37.5%	40.9%	25.0%	.450

Washington Nationals

form 45

last 7 days · 189 PA

OPS.712

AVG.228

OBP.299

SLG.413

ISO.186

HR8

K%20.6%

BB%9.0%

Runs26

San Francisco Giants

form 98

last 7 days · 253 PA

OPS.844

AVG.305

OBP.348

SLG.496

ISO.190

HR11

K%19.8%

BB%5.9%

Runs38

Washington Nationals

fatigue 62

last 3 days

Relief IP11.0

Relievers5

Pitches174

Back-to-back0

ERA3.27

WHIP1.55

San Francisco Giants

fatigue 47

last 3 days

Relief IP6.0

Relievers5

Pitches92

Back-to-back2

ERA4.50

WHIP1.33