Live
PHIStarter
Luzardo
2–0
SEAStarter
Woo
B
S
O
Line score not available yet.
LiveLast updated: —
Pregame Snapshot
Before first pitch, NYX expected…
Even Matchup
52% to Win
The Phillies enter tonight with an opponent missing key regulars and a more rested bullpen. The Mariners counter with a strong starter, leaving NYX to call it essentially even.
Toss-UpConfirmed
Updated after confirmed lineups. Model-based estimate, not betting odds.
Mariners also brings
- •Better starter projection
- •Home field
Prediction updated: 1h agoNYX Engine v2.2Walk-Forward ValidatedLineups: ConfirmedStarters: Confirmed
Why NYX Sees the Edge
- ✓Opponent missing key regulars
- ✓Lower bullpen fatigue
- ✓Better recent form
What Changed
How the NYX read moved before first pitch.
- Initial Read48%
Home Advantage
Mariners home55%37–30
Phillies road54%35–30
Home Edge+1
Team Story
Phillies has handled the road well this season (54%). Mariners counters with a capable starter, but Phillies brings the stronger overall context.
Game Notes
- •Randy Arozarena leads the Mariners with 20 HR
- •Kyle Schwarber leads the Phillies with 39 HR
- •Josh Naylor leads the Mariners with 131 hits
- •Trea Turner leads the Phillies with 127 hits
- •Luis Arraez ranks #2 in MLB in AVG (.321)
Phillies @ Mariners
NYX Engine v2.2Walk-Forward Validated
Key Drivers
- Offense+31
- Context & Health+21
- Run Prevention+17
- Starting Pitching+16
- Bullpen+9
Seattle Mariners holds a 5.2-pt model edge (Seattle Mariners 60.4 vs Philadelphia Phillies 55.2). Confidence 64% (medium data). Analysis edge only — not betting advice.
Philadelphia Phillies
form 57OPS.744
AVG.277
OBP.323
SLG.421
ISO.144
HR5
K%15.8%
BB%6.8%
Runs32