Scheduled
PHIStarter
Sánchez
vs--Local Time
STLStarter
Pallante
Pregame Snapshot
Before first pitch, NYX expected…
Even Matchup
52% to Win
The Phillies enter tonight with the hotter lineup and the more productive offense. The Cardinals counter with a strong starter, leaving NYX to call it essentially even.
Toss-Up
Updated after confirmed lineups. Model-based estimate, not betting odds.
Cardinals also brings
- •Better starter projection
- •Better bullpen quality
- •Home field
Prediction updated: 21h ago · Data may be staleNYX Engine v2.2Walk-Forward ValidatedLineups: PendingStarters: Confirmed
Prediction stale
Why NYX Sees the Edge
- ✓Better recent form
- ✓Better offensive production
- ✓High model confidence
What Changed
How the NYX read moved before first pitch.
- Initial Read48%
- Initial Read48%
- Initial Read48%
- Initial Read48%
- Initial Read48%
- Initial Read48%
- Initial Read48%
- Initial Read48%
- Initial Read48%
- Initial Read48%
- Initial Read48%
- Initial Read48%
- Initial Read48%
- Initial Read48%
- Initial Read48%
- Initial Read48%
- Initial Read48%
- Initial Read48%
- Initial Read48%
- Initial Read48%
Home Advantage
Cardinals home47%30–34
Phillies road55%32–26
Home Edge-8
Team Story
Phillies has handled the road well this season (55%). Cardinals counters with a capable starter, but Phillies enters with the edge on the bats.
Game Notes
- •Jordan Walker leads the Cardinals with 23 HR
- •Kyle Schwarber leads the Phillies with 35 HR
- •Jordan Walker leads the Cardinals with 128 hits
- •Trea Turner leads the Phillies with 119 hits
- •Luis Arraez ranks #3 in MLB in AVG (.316)
Phillies @ Cardinals
NYX Engine v2.2Walk-Forward Validated
Key Drivers
- Run Prevention+22
- Bullpen+16
- Offense+12
- Starting Pitching+10
- Context & Health+1
What Could Flip It
- •If St. Louis Cardinals home & environment delivers, it could swing the game
- •Home & Environment is near-even and could decide it
Overall MatchupPhilliesCardinals
74
61
Matchup Scorecard
80
Starting Pitching
70
78
Bullpen
62
66
Offense
54
76
Run Prevention
54
57
Context & Health
58
Home starter
Andre Pallante
ConfirmedData quality: Medium
▸Show stats
Season stats unavailable
Arsenal unavailable
Source: MLB schedule
Away starter
Cristopher Sánchez
ConfirmedData quality: Medium
▸Show stats
Season stats unavailable
Arsenal unavailable
Source: MLB schedule
Injury Report
Phillies
6 on the IL- PCaleb Kilian15-Day IL· 78 · High Impact· at injury date 2026-08-10
- PBrad Keller60-Day IL· 63 · Medium Impact· at injury date 2026-07-13
- PTanner Banks60-Day IL· 59 · Medium Impact· at injury date 2026-07-09
- RFAdolis García60-Day IL· 42 · Medium Impact· at injury date 2026-06-12
- CRafael Marchán10-Day IL· 14 · Low Impact· at injury date 2026-07-23
- CFJohan Rojas60-Day IL· Unknown Impact
Impact at injury date — the player's value as of his IL placement, frozen at that date. Context only, not predictive, not an engine input.
Cardinals
2 on the IL- 3BRamón Urías60-Day IL· 31 · Low Impact· at injury date 2026-06-12
- PMax Rajcic60-Day IL· Unknown Impact
Impact at injury date — the player's value as of his IL placement, frozen at that date. Context only, not predictive, not an engine input.
St. Louis Cardinals holds a 5.8-pt model edge (St. Louis Cardinals 52.9 vs Philadelphia Phillies 47.2). Confidence 85% (high data). Analysis edge only — not betting advice.
Last 10 Meetings
Limited recent H2H historyPhillies
W
Cardinals
L
Oldest → most recent · completed MLB games
Philadelphia Phillies
form 64OPS.759
AVG.259
OBP.363