Scheduled
BOSStarter
Sandoval
vs--Local Time
TORStarter
Cease
Pregame Snapshot
Before first pitch, NYX expected…
Even Matchup
52% to Win
The Blue Jays enter tonight with the stronger starting-pitching matchup and the home-field edge. The Red Sox are swinging hot bats, leaving NYX to call it essentially even.
Toss-Up
Updated after confirmed lineups. Model-based estimate, not betting odds.
Red Sox also brings
- •Better recent form
- •Better bullpen quality
- •Lower bullpen fatigue
Prediction updated: 21h ago · Data may be staleNYX Engine v2.2Walk-Forward ValidatedLineups: PendingStarters: Confirmed
Prediction stale
Why NYX Sees the Edge
- ✓Better starter projection
- ✓Home field
- ✓High model confidence
What Changed
How the NYX read moved before first pitch.
- Initial Read52%
- Initial Read52%
- Initial Read52%
- Initial Read52%
- Initial Read52%
- Initial Read52%
- Initial Read51%
- Initial Read51%
- Initial Read43%
- Initial Read43%
- Initial Read43%
- Initial Read43%
- Initial Read43%
- Initial Read43%
- Initial Read43%
- Initial Read43%
- Initial Read43%
- Initial Read43%
- Initial Read43%
- Initial Read43%
Home Advantage
Blue Jays home48%29–31
Red Sox road60%35–23
Home Edge-12
Team Story
Blue Jays carries the model's edge into this matchup. Red Sox brings real power upside at the plate, but Blue Jays brings the stronger overall context.
Game Notes
- •Kazuma Okamoto leads the Blue Jays with 24 HR
- •Willson Contreras leads the Red Sox with 23 HR
- •Ernie Clement leads the Blue Jays with 128 hits
- •Ceddanne Rafaela leads the Red Sox with 128 hits
- •Ernie Clement ranks #23 in MLB in AVG (.284)
Red Sox @ Blue Jays
NYX Engine v2.2Walk-Forward Validated
Key Drivers
- Offense+35
- Starting Pitching+34
- Run Prevention+21
- Bullpen+18
- Context & Health+4
What Could Flip It
- •If Boston Red Sox offense delivers, it could swing the game
- •If Boston Red Sox run prevention delivers, it could swing the game
- •Home & Environment is near-even and could decide it
Overall MatchupRed SoxBlue Jays
72
66
Matchup Scorecard
63
Starting Pitching
97
86
Bullpen
68
65
Offense
30
78
Run Prevention
57
66
Context & Health
62
Home starter
Dylan Cease
ConfirmedData quality: Medium
▸Show stats
Season stats unavailable
Arsenal unavailable
Source: MLB schedule
Away starter
Patrick Sandoval
ConfirmedData quality: Medium
▸Show stats
Season stats unavailable
Arsenal unavailable
Source: MLB schedule
Injury Report
Red Sox
11 on the IL- 3BCurtis Mead10-Day IL· 84 · High Impact· at injury date 2026-07-28
- PGarrett Crochet60-Day IL· 79 · High Impact· at injury date 2026-04-26
- LFRoman Anthony60-Day IL· 55 · Medium Impact· at injury date 2026-05-05
- 2BIsiah Kiner-Falefa10-Day IL· 44 · Medium Impact· at injury date 2026-06-19
- SSTrevor Story60-Day IL· 37 · Low Impact· at injury date 2026-05-15
- PZack Kelly60-Day IL· 36 · Low Impact· at injury date 2026-07-21
- CAdley Rutschman10-Day IL· Unknown Impact
- PJohan Oviedo60-Day IL· Unknown Impact
- PKutter Crawford60-Day IL· Unknown Impact
- PTanner Houck60-Day IL· Unknown Impact
- 1BTriston Casas60-Day IL· Unknown Impact
Impact at injury date — the player's value as of his IL placement, frozen at that date. Context only, not predictive, not an engine input.
Blue Jays
13 on the IL- PTrey Yesavage15-Day IL· 69 · Medium Impact· at injury date 2026-08-05
- PJoe Mantiply60-Day IL· 66 · Medium Impact· at injury date 2026-05-18
- PPatrick Corbin60-Day IL· 54 · Medium Impact· at injury date 2026-07-22
- 2BLuis Urías10-Day IL· 49 · Medium Impact· at injury date 2026-08-07
- RFAddison Barger60-Day IL· 21 · Low Impact· at injury date 2026-05-10
- 2BLenyn Sosa60-Day IL· 17 · Low Impact· at injury date 2026-05-27
- RFAnthony Santander60-Day IL· Unknown Impact
- PBowden Francis60-Day IL· Unknown Impact
- PCody Ponce60-Day IL· Unknown Impact
- LFJonatan Clase10-Day IL· Unknown Impact
- PJosé Berríos60-Day IL· Unknown Impact
- PSpencer Arrighetti15-Day IL· Unknown Impact
- PYimi García60-Day IL· Unknown Impact
Impact at injury date — the player's value as of his IL placement, frozen at that date. Context only, not predictive, not an engine input.
Boston Red Sox holds a 5.7-pt model edge (Toronto Blue Jays 55.5 vs Boston Red Sox 61.2). Confidence 100% (high data). Analysis edge only — not betting advice.
Last 10 Meetings
Blue Jays lead 5–2Red Sox
LLLWLWL
Blue Jays