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Implied probabilities are derived from each source's listed prices with the built-in margin removed, so the two sides of a game sum to 100%. Differences are shown in percentage points versus the pre-computed multi-source consensus. Informational comparison only — this is not advice.
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Final
Line score not available yet.
What changed after first pitch.
Result
Nationals won · Reds 1, Nationals 7
Pregame edge
Reds · missed
Before first pitch, NYX expected…
52% to Win
The Reds enter tonight with the stronger starting-pitching matchup and a more rested bullpen. The Nationals have a deep bullpen of their own, leaving NYX to call it essentially even.
Updated after confirmed lineups. Model-based estimate, not betting odds.
Nationals also brings
What Changed
How the NYX read moved before first pitch.
Cincinnati Reds @ Washington Nationals
NYX favored the Cincinnati Reds (52%), but Washington Nationals won 7–1 — their offense didn't hold up. A surprising result — more than 71% of comparable v2.2 finals.
Biggest factors
Runs 1–7 · Hits 4–13 · Errors 1–0Home Advantage
Reds carries the model's edge into this matchup. Nationals can lean on a deeper bullpen, but Reds brings the stronger overall context.
Key Drivers
What Could Flip It
Home starter
Season stats unavailable
Arsenal unavailable
Source: MLB schedule
Away starter
Season stats unavailable
Arsenal unavailable
Source: MLB schedule
Impact at injury date — the player's value as of his IL placement, frozen at that date. Context only, not predictive, not an engine input.
Impact at injury date — the player's value as of his IL placement, frozen at that date. Context only, not predictive, not an engine input.
Each factor shows the model’s pre-game lean (bar), what the box score said happened (chip: delivered / backfired / overcame), and — when a v2.2 snapshot exists — its win-probability weight (pp toward the pick). Home Field & Health have no box-score actual. Model home win 48%. The pp values reconcile to the edge alongside a +1.5 pp home-field baseline.
Pre-game lean · box-score result · v2.2 win-prob attribution. Read-only review — it explains the existing prediction, it does not change it.
Cincinnati Reds holds a 5.7-pt model edge (Washington Nationals 48.9 vs Cincinnati Reds 54.6). Confidence 85% (high data). Analysis edge only — not betting advice.
Last 10 Meetings
Nationals lead 3–0Oldest → most recent · completed MLB games
Still gathering — this fills in as the season progresses.