Matchup Scorecard β San Diego Padres @ Baltimore Orioles
Away starter
Randy VΓ‘squezConfirmed
Home starter
Trey GibsonConfirmed
Starts --Β· game day 2026-06-13
Edge: Baltimore Orioles +20.2LOWBaltimore Orioles lineup holds the matchup edge (+20.21). Based on pitch-type fit + limited 1:1 history.
Small historical sample: pitch-type profile and recent form are weighted more heavily. confirmed_lineup / probable_lineup / roster_proxy.
Nyx Analysis
- β’The Baltimore Orioles are favored on a stronger starter and a deeper lineup.
- β’Limited sample size β confidence is capped.
βΈSupporting data
matchup.edge: team=Baltimore Orioles Β· reasons=sp,bat Β· edge=29
matchup.lowSample: β
Randy VΓ‘squez vs Baltimore Orioles lineup
vs Randy VΓ‘squez Β· lineup: roster_proxy
| # | Batter | PA | AVG | OPS | xwOBA | K% | Pitcher weapon | Danger pitch | Edge | Conf | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Taylor Ward | 0 | β | β | β | β | 4-Seam Fastball | Sinker | Neutral | 20% | TINY |
| 2 | Gunnar Henderson | 0 | β | β | β | β | 4-Seam Fastball | β | Low sample | 20% | TINY |
| 3 | Adley Rutschman | 0 | β | β | β | β | 4-Seam Fastball | Cutter | Batter edge | 20% | TINY |
| 4 | Pete Alonso | 0 | β | β | β | β | 4-Seam Fastball | Changeup | Batter edge | 20% | TINY |
| 5 | Samuel Basallo | 0 | β | β | β | β | 4-Seam Fastball | β | Low sample | 20% | TINY |
| 6 | Coby Mayo | 0 | β | β | β | β | 4-Seam Fastball | β | Low sample | 20% | TINY |
| 7 | Colton Cowser | 0 | β | β | β | β | 4-Seam Fastball | β | Low sample | 20% | TINY |
| 8 | Tyler O'Neill | 0 | β | β | β | β | 4-Seam Fastball | 4-Seam Fastball | Pitcher edge | 20% | TINY |
| 9 | Jackson Holliday | 0 | β | β | β | β | 4-Seam Fastball | β | Low sample | 20% | TINY |
Trey Gibson vs San Diego Padres lineup
vs Trey Gibson Β· lineup: roster_proxy
| # | Batter | PA | AVG | OPS | xwOBA | K% | Pitcher weapon | Danger pitch | Edge | Conf | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Fernando Tatis Jr. | 0 | β | β | β | β | Curveball | Cutter | Neutral | 20% | TINY |
| 2 | Jackson Merrill | 0 | β | β | β | β | Curveball | β | Low sample | 20% | TINY |
| 3 | Manny Machado | 0 | β | β | β | β | Curveball | 4-Seam Fastball | Pitcher edge | 20% | TINY |
| 4 | Xander Bogaerts | 0 | β | β | β | β | Curveball | Cutter | Pitcher edge | 20% | TINY |
| 5 | Gavin Sheets | 0 | β | β | β | β | Curveball | Cutter | Neutral | 20% | TINY |
| 6 | Samad Taylor | 0 | β | β | β | β | Curveball | Slider | Neutral | 20% | TINY |
| 7 | Ty France | 0 | β | β | β | β | Curveball | Cutter | Pitcher edge | 20% | TINY |
| 8 | Will Wagner | 0 | β | β | β | β | Curveball | β | Low sample | 20% | TINY |
| 9 | Freddy Fermin | 0 | β | β | β | β | Curveball | 4-Seam Fastball | Pitcher edge | 20% | TINY |
Pitch-type breakdown
Randy VΓ‘squez vs
No pitch-type history for this pairing.
Trey Gibson vs
No pitch-type history for this pairing.
Bullpen vs lineup (highest risk first)
| Reliever | Batter | PA | OPS | xwOBA | Arsenal | Batter weak vs | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Keegan Akin | Jackson Merrill | 1 | .000 | .828 | FF 50%, CH 26%, SL 25% | β | MEDIUM |
| Keegan Akin | Xander Bogaerts | 1 | .000 | .737 | FF 50%, CH 26%, SL 25% | Split-Finger | MEDIUM |
| Keegan Akin | Manny Machado | 1 | 3.000 | .998 | FF 50%, CH 26%, SL 25% | Curveball | MEDIUM |
| Keegan Akin | Gavin Sheets | 1 | .000 | .083 | FF 50%, CH 26%, SL 25% | Split-Finger | LOW |
| Adrian Morejon | Jackson Holliday | 0 | β | β | SI 48%, SL 21%, CH 19% | β | UNKNOWN |
| Adrian Morejon | Taylor Ward | 0 | β | β | SI 48%, SL 21%, CH 19% | Sweeper | UNKNOWN |
| Adrian Morejon | Gunnar Henderson | 0 | β | β | SI 48%, SL 21%, CH 19% | β | UNKNOWN |
| Adrian Morejon | Adley Rutschman | 0 | β | β | SI 48%, SL 21%, CH 19% | Knuckle Curve | UNKNOWN |
| Adrian Morejon | Pete Alonso | 0 | β | β | SI 48%, SL 21%, CH 19% | Cutter | UNKNOWN |
| Adrian Morejon | Samuel Basallo | 0 | β | β | SI 48%, SL 21%, CH 19% | β | UNKNOWN |
| Adrian Morejon | Coby Mayo | 0 | β | β | SI 48%, SL 21%, CH 19% | β | UNKNOWN |
| Adrian Morejon | Colton Cowser | 0 | β | β | SI 48%, SL 21%, CH 19% | β | UNKNOWN |
| Adrian Morejon | Tyler O'Neill | 0 | β | β | SI 48%, SL 21%, CH 19% | Sweeper | UNKNOWN |
| Bradgley Rodriguez | Jackson Holliday | 0 | β | β | CH 41%, SI 28%, FF 22% | β | UNKNOWN |
| Bradgley Rodriguez | Tyler O'Neill | 0 | β | β | CH 41%, SI 28%, FF 22% | Sweeper | UNKNOWN |
| Bradgley Rodriguez | Colton Cowser | 0 | β | β | CH 41%, SI 28%, FF 22% | β | UNKNOWN |
| Bradgley Rodriguez | Coby Mayo | 0 | β | β | CH 41%, SI 28%, FF 22% | β | UNKNOWN |
| Bradgley Rodriguez | Samuel Basallo | 0 | β | β | CH 41%, SI 28%, FF 22% | β | UNKNOWN |
| Bradgley Rodriguez | Pete Alonso | 0 | β | β | CH 41%, SI 28%, FF 22% | Cutter | UNKNOWN |
| Bradgley Rodriguez | Adley Rutschman | 0 | β | β | CH 41%, SI 28%, FF 22% | Knuckle Curve | UNKNOWN |
| Bradgley Rodriguez | Gunnar Henderson | 0 | β | β | CH 41%, SI 28%, FF 22% | β | UNKNOWN |
| Bradgley Rodriguez | Taylor Ward | 0 | β | β | CH 41%, SI 28%, FF 22% | Sweeper | UNKNOWN |
| Grant Wolfram | Freddy Fermin | 0 | β | β | SI 46%, ST 16%, FF 15% | Changeup | UNKNOWN |
| Grant Wolfram | Fernando Tatis Jr. | 0 | β | β | SI 46%, ST 16%, FF 15% | Sweeper | UNKNOWN |
| Grant Wolfram | Jackson Merrill | 0 | β | β | SI 46%, ST 16%, FF 15% | β | UNKNOWN |
| Grant Wolfram | Manny Machado | 0 | β | β | SI 46%, ST 16%, FF 15% | Curveball | UNKNOWN |
| Grant Wolfram | Xander Bogaerts | 0 | β | β | SI 46%, ST 16%, FF 15% | Split-Finger | UNKNOWN |
| Grant Wolfram | Gavin Sheets | 0 | β | β | SI 46%, ST 16%, FF 15% | Split-Finger | UNKNOWN |
| Grant Wolfram | Samad Taylor | 0 | β | β | SI 46%, ST 16%, FF 15% | β | UNKNOWN |
| Grant Wolfram | Ty France | 0 | β | β | SI 46%, ST 16%, FF 15% | 4-Seam Fastball | UNKNOWN |
| Grant Wolfram | Will Wagner | 0 | β | β | SI 46%, ST 16%, FF 15% | β | UNKNOWN |
| Jason Adam | Taylor Ward | 0 | β | β | SL 40%, CH 30%, FF 25% | Sweeper | UNKNOWN |
| Jason Adam | Jackson Holliday | 0 | β | β | SL 40%, CH 30%, FF 25% | β | UNKNOWN |
| Jason Adam | Tyler O'Neill | 0 | β | β | SL 40%, CH 30%, FF 25% | Sweeper | UNKNOWN |
| Jason Adam | Colton Cowser | 0 | β | β | SL 40%, CH 30%, FF 25% | β | UNKNOWN |
| Jason Adam | Coby Mayo | 0 | β | β | SL 40%, CH 30%, FF 25% | β | UNKNOWN |
| Jason Adam | Samuel Basallo | 0 | β | β | SL 40%, CH 30%, FF 25% | β | UNKNOWN |
| Jason Adam | Pete Alonso | 0 | β | β | SL 40%, CH 30%, FF 25% | Cutter | UNKNOWN |
| Jason Adam | Adley Rutschman | 0 | β | β | SL 40%, CH 30%, FF 25% | Knuckle Curve | UNKNOWN |
| Jason Adam | Gunnar Henderson | 0 | β | β | SL 40%, CH 30%, FF 25% | β | UNKNOWN |
Top 3 hitter advantages
Adley Rutschman vs Randy VΓ‘squez
67Batter edge
Gunnar Henderson vs Randy VΓ‘squez
63Low sample
Samuel Basallo vs Randy VΓ‘squez
63Low sample
Top 3 pitcher advantages
Trey Gibson vs Freddy Fermin83
Randy VΓ‘squez vs Tyler O'Neill64
Trey Gibson vs Jackson Merrill63