Nyx Aether Baseball

Matchup Scorecard — San Diego Padres @ Baltimore Orioles

Griffin Canning vs Shane Baz

Final · Started --· game day 2026-06-12

Edge: Baltimore Orioles +10.6LOWBaltimore Orioles lineup holds the matchup edge (+10.55). Based on pitch-type fit + limited 1:1 history.

Small historical sample: pitch-type profile and recent form are weighted more heavily. confirmed_lineup / probable_lineup / roster_proxy.

Nyx Analysis

•The Baltimore Orioles are favored on a stronger starter, a deeper lineup and a stronger bullpen.

▸Supporting data

matchup.edge: team=Baltimore Orioles · reasons=sp,bat,bp · edge=24

Griffin Canning vs Baltimore Orioles lineup

vs Griffin Canning · lineup: roster_proxy

#	Batter	AVG	OPS	xwOBA	K%	Pitcher weapon	Danger pitch	Edge	Conf	Sample
1	Taylor Ward	—	—	—	—	Sweeper	Sinker	Neutral	20%	TINY
2	Gunnar Henderson	—	—	—	—	Sweeper	—	Low sample	20%	TINY
3	Adley Rutschman	—	—	—	—	Sweeper	Cutter	Batter edge	20%	TINY
4	Pete Alonso	—	—	—	—	Sweeper	Changeup	Neutral	20%	TINY
5	Samuel Basallo	—	—	—	—	Sweeper	—	Low sample	20%	TINY
6	Leody Taveras	—	—	—	—	Sweeper	Sweeper	Pitcher edge	20%	TINY
7	Colton Cowser	—	—	—	—	Sweeper	Slider	Neutral	20%	TINY
8	Blaze Alexander	—	—	—	—	Sweeper	Knuckle Curve	Batter edge	20%	TINY
9	Jackson Holliday	—	—	—	—	Sweeper	—	Low sample	20%	TINY

Shane Baz vs San Diego Padres lineup

vs Shane Baz · lineup: roster_proxy

#	Batter	AVG	OPS	xwOBA	K%	Pitcher weapon	Danger pitch	Edge	Conf	Sample
1	Fernando Tatis Jr.	—	—	—	—	Knuckle Curve	Cutter	Batter edge	20%	TINY
2	Jackson Merrill	—	—	—	—	Knuckle Curve	—	Low sample	20%	TINY
3	Manny Machado	—	—	—	—	Knuckle Curve	Cutter	Pitcher edge	20%	TINY
4	Gavin Sheets	—	—	—	—	Knuckle Curve	Knuckle Curve	Batter edge	20%	TINY
5	Ty France	—	—	—	—	Knuckle Curve	Cutter	Pitcher edge	20%	TINY
6	Samad Taylor	—	—	—	—	Knuckle Curve	Cutter	Pitcher edge	20%	TINY
7	Jase Bowen	—	—	—	—	Knuckle Curve	—	Low sample	20%	TINY
8	Freddy Fermin	—	—	—	—	Knuckle Curve	4-Seam Fastball	Pitcher edge	20%	TINY
9	Sung-Mun Song	—	—	—	—	Knuckle Curve	—	Low sample	20%	TINY

Pitch-type breakdown

Griffin Canning vs

No pitch-type history for this pairing.

Shane Baz vs

No pitch-type history for this pairing.

Bullpen vs lineup (highest risk first)

Reliever	Batter	OPS	xwOBA	Arsenal	Batter weak vs	Risk
Andrew Kittredge	Sung-Mun Song	—	—	SL 52%, SI 38%, FF 10%	—	UNKNOWN
Andrew Kittredge	Freddy Fermin	—	—	SL 52%, SI 38%, FF 10%	Knuckle Curve	UNKNOWN
Andrew Kittredge	Jase Bowen	—	—	SL 52%, SI 38%, FF 10%	—	UNKNOWN
Andrew Kittredge	Samad Taylor	—	—	SL 52%, SI 38%, FF 10%	Sweeper	UNKNOWN
Andrew Kittredge	Fernando Tatis Jr.	—	—	SL 52%, SI 38%, FF 10%	Sweeper	UNKNOWN
Andrew Kittredge	Ty France	—	—	SL 52%, SI 38%, FF 10%	4-Seam Fastball	UNKNOWN
Andrew Kittredge	Gavin Sheets	—	—	SL 52%, SI 38%, FF 10%	Split-Finger	UNKNOWN
Andrew Kittredge	Manny Machado	—	—	SL 52%, SI 38%, FF 10%	Curveball	UNKNOWN
Andrew Kittredge	Jackson Merrill	—	—	SL 52%, SI 38%, FF 10%	—	UNKNOWN
David Morgan	Leody Taveras	—	—	SI 32%, CU 28%, FF 25%	Curveball	UNKNOWN
David Morgan	Jackson Holliday	—	—	SI 32%, CU 28%, FF 25%	—	UNKNOWN
David Morgan	Taylor Ward	—	—	SI 32%, CU 28%, FF 25%	Curveball	UNKNOWN
David Morgan	Blaze Alexander	—	—	SI 32%, CU 28%, FF 25%	Curveball	UNKNOWN
David Morgan	Colton Cowser	—	—	SI 32%, CU 28%, FF 25%	Sweeper	UNKNOWN
David Morgan	Samuel Basallo	—	—	SI 32%, CU 28%, FF 25%	—	UNKNOWN
David Morgan	Pete Alonso	—	—	SI 32%, CU 28%, FF 25%	Cutter	UNKNOWN
David Morgan	Adley Rutschman	—	—	SI 32%, CU 28%, FF 25%	Knuckle Curve	UNKNOWN
David Morgan	Gunnar Henderson	—	—	SI 32%, CU 28%, FF 25%	—	UNKNOWN
Keegan Akin	Sung-Mun Song	—	—	FF 49%, CH 26%, SL 25%	—	UNKNOWN
Keegan Akin	Fernando Tatis Jr.	—	—	FF 49%, CH 26%, SL 25%	Sweeper	UNKNOWN
Keegan Akin	Jackson Merrill	—	—	FF 49%, CH 26%, SL 25%	—	UNKNOWN
Keegan Akin	Manny Machado	—	—	FF 49%, CH 26%, SL 25%	Curveball	UNKNOWN
Keegan Akin	Gavin Sheets	—	—	FF 49%, CH 26%, SL 25%	Split-Finger	UNKNOWN
Keegan Akin	Ty France	—	—	FF 49%, CH 26%, SL 25%	4-Seam Fastball	UNKNOWN
Keegan Akin	Samad Taylor	—	—	FF 49%, CH 26%, SL 25%	Sweeper	UNKNOWN
Keegan Akin	Jase Bowen	—	—	FF 49%, CH 26%, SL 25%	—	UNKNOWN
Keegan Akin	Freddy Fermin	—	—	FF 49%, CH 26%, SL 25%	Knuckle Curve	UNKNOWN
Rico Garcia	Jackson Merrill	—	—	FF 33%, CH 29%, SL 22%	—	UNKNOWN
Rico Garcia	Fernando Tatis Jr.	—	—	FF 33%, CH 29%, SL 22%	Sweeper	UNKNOWN
Rico Garcia	Manny Machado	—	—	FF 33%, CH 29%, SL 22%	Curveball	UNKNOWN
Rico Garcia	Gavin Sheets	—	—	FF 33%, CH 29%, SL 22%	Split-Finger	UNKNOWN
Rico Garcia	Ty France	—	—	FF 33%, CH 29%, SL 22%	4-Seam Fastball	UNKNOWN
Rico Garcia	Samad Taylor	—	—	FF 33%, CH 29%, SL 22%	Sweeper	UNKNOWN
Rico Garcia	Jase Bowen	—	—	FF 33%, CH 29%, SL 22%	—	UNKNOWN
Rico Garcia	Freddy Fermin	—	—	FF 33%, CH 29%, SL 22%	Knuckle Curve	UNKNOWN
Rico Garcia	Sung-Mun Song	—	—	FF 33%, CH 29%, SL 22%	—	UNKNOWN
Ron Marinaccio	Taylor Ward	—	—	FF 42%, CH 30%, FC 21%	Curveball	UNKNOWN
Ron Marinaccio	Jackson Holliday	—	—	FF 42%, CH 30%, FC 21%	—	UNKNOWN
Ron Marinaccio	Blaze Alexander	—	—	FF 42%, CH 30%, FC 21%	Curveball	UNKNOWN
Ron Marinaccio	Colton Cowser	—	—	FF 42%, CH 30%, FC 21%	Sweeper	UNKNOWN

Top 3 hitter advantages

Fernando Tatis Jr. vs Shane Baz

65Batter edge

Gavin Sheets vs Shane Baz

64Batter edge

Blaze Alexander vs Griffin Canning

62Batter edge

Top 3 pitcher advantages

Shane Baz vs Freddy Fermin79

Shane Baz vs Manny Machado72

Griffin Canning vs Leody Taveras71