Final
SD5–2
Final
BALLine score not available yet.
NYX Live Trend
Trend begins at first pitch.
Model-based game control score derived from live play-by-play. Not betting odds.
Postgame Review
What changed after first pitch.
Result
Padres won · Padres 5, Orioles 2
Pregame edge
Orioles · missed
Pregame Snapshot
Before first pitch, NYX expected…
NYX Win Edge
Orioles 53% to Win
Slight EdgeConfirmed
Updated after confirmed lineups. Model-based estimate, not betting odds.
Padres also brings
- •Better bullpen quality
- •Lower bullpen fatigue
Why we like Orioles
- ✓Better starter projection
- ✓Better recent form
- ✓Better offensive production
- ✓Home field
- ✓Higher overall matchup score
Home Advantage
Orioles home54%22–19
Padres road56%18–14
Home Edge-3
Team Story
Orioles has been the stronger side at home this season (54%). Padres can lean on a deeper bullpen, but Orioles has the more favorable setup on the bats and pitching depth.
Game Notes
- •Pete Alonso leads the Orioles with 16 HR
- •Manny Machado leads the Padres with 12 HR
- •Pete Alonso leads the Orioles with 70 hits
- •Fernando Tatis Jr. leads the Padres with 75 hits
- •Orioles are 22–19 at home this season
Overall MatchupPadresOrioles
55
61
Matchup Scorecard
PadresOrioles
3531
Starting Pitching
8081
Bullpen
3779
Offense
4043
Run Prevention
7574
Context & Health
Padres @ Orioles
NYX Engine v2.2Walk-Forward Validated
Key Drivers
- OffenseOrioles +7.7
- Starting PitchingPadres -1.3
- Run PreventionOrioles +0.4
- HealthPadres -0.2
- Home AdvantagePadres -0.1
What Could Flip It
- •If San Diego Padres starting pitching delivers, it could swing the game
- •If San Diego Padres health delivers, it could swing the game
- •Bullpen is near-even and could decide it
Prediction Timeline
How the NYX read moved before first pitch.
- 53%Initial Read
Health & Availability
Padres★★★★★1 regular(s) out
Orioles★★★★★1 regular(s) out
Away starter
Walker Buehler
ProbableData quality: Medium
▸Show stats
Season stats unavailable
Arsenal unavailable
Source: MLB schedule
Baltimore Orioles holds a 4.2-pt model edge (Baltimore Orioles 63.8 vs San Diego Padres 59.6). Confidence 100% (high data). Analysis edge only — not betting advice.
Last 10 Meetings
Padres lead 2–1Padres
LWW
Orioles
WLL
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