Nyx Aether Baseball

Matchup Scorecard — Arizona Diamondbacks @ Cincinnati Reds

Away starter

Michael SorokaConfirmed

Home starter

Rhett LowderConfirmed

Starts --· game day 2026-06-13

Edge: Cincinnati Reds +4.8LOWCincinnati Reds lineup holds the matchup edge (+4.84). Based on pitch-type fit + limited 1:1 history.

Small historical sample: pitch-type profile and recent form are weighted more heavily. confirmed_lineup / probable_lineup / roster_proxy.

Nyx Analysis

•The Cincinnati Reds are favored on a deeper lineup.
•Limited sample size — confidence is capped.

▸Supporting data

matchup.edge: team=Cincinnati Reds · reasons=bat · edge=10

matchup.lowSample: —

Michael Soroka vs Cincinnati Reds lineup

vs Michael Soroka · lineup: roster_proxy

#	Batter	AVG	OPS	xwOBA	K%	Pitcher weapon	Danger pitch	Edge	Conf	Sample
1	Dane Myers	—	—	—	—	Slurve	Sinker	Pitcher edge	20%	TINY
2	JJ Bleday	—	—	—	—	Slurve	4-Seam Fastball	Neutral	20%	TINY
3	Sal Stewart	—	—	—	—	Slurve	—	Low sample	20%	TINY
4	Spencer Steer	—	—	—	—	Slurve	Cutter	Pitcher edge	20%	TINY
5	Edwin Arroyo	—	—	—	—	Slurve	—	Low sample	20%	TINY
6	Blake Dunn	—	—	—	—	Slurve	—	Low sample	20%	TINY
7	Noelvi Marte	—	—	—	—	Slurve	—	Low sample	20%	TINY
8	P.J. Higgins	—	—	—	—	Slurve	Sinker	Pitcher edge	20%	TINY
9	Matt McLain	—	—	—	—	Slurve	—	Low sample	20%	TINY

Rhett Lowder vs Arizona Diamondbacks lineup

vs Rhett Lowder · lineup: roster_proxy

#	Batter	AVG	OPS	xwOBA	K%	Pitcher weapon	Danger pitch	Edge	Conf	Sample
1	Ketel Marte	—	—	—	—	Slider	Sinker	Neutral	20%	TINY
2	Corbin Carroll	—	—	—	—	Slider	—	Low sample	20%	TINY
3	Gabriel Moreno	—	—	—	—	Slider	—	Low sample	20%	TINY
4	Nolan Arenado	—	—	—	—	Slider	4-Seam Fastball	Pitcher edge	20%	TINY
5	Ildemaro Vargas	—	—	—	—	Slider	Sinker	Pitcher edge	20%	TINY
6	Geraldo Perdomo	—	—	—	—	Slider	—	Low sample	20%	TINY
7	Jordan Lawlar	—	—	—	—	Slider	—	Low sample	20%	TINY
8	LuJames Groover	—	—	—	—	Slider	—	Low sample	20%	TINY
9	Jorge Barrosa	—	—	—	—	Slider	—	Low sample	20%	TINY

Pitch-type breakdown

Michael Soroka vs

No pitch-type history for this pairing.

Rhett Lowder vs

No pitch-type history for this pairing.

Bullpen vs lineup (highest risk first)

Reliever	Batter	PA	OPS	xwOBA	Arsenal	Batter weak vs	Risk
Kevin Ginkel	Matt McLain	1	.000	.505	SL 53%, FF 44%, SI 3%	—	MEDIUM
Jonathan Loáisiga	Spencer Steer	1	.000	.000	SI 32%, CH 30%, CU 19%	Split-Finger	LOW
Jonathan Loáisiga	Sal Stewart	1	.000	.090	SI 32%, CH 30%, CU 19%	—	LOW
Kevin Ginkel	Blake Dunn	1	.000	.221	SL 53%, FF 44%, SI 3%	—	LOW
Kevin Ginkel	Noelvi Marte	1	.000	.053	SL 53%, FF 44%, SI 3%	—	LOW
Brandyn Garcia	Dane Myers	0	—	—	SI 63%, ST 24%, SL 13%	Curveball	UNKNOWN
Brandyn Garcia	Matt McLain	0	—	—	SI 63%, ST 24%, SL 13%	—	UNKNOWN
Brandyn Garcia	P.J. Higgins	0	—	—	SI 63%, ST 24%, SL 13%	Slider	UNKNOWN
Brandyn Garcia	Noelvi Marte	0	—	—	SI 63%, ST 24%, SL 13%	—	UNKNOWN
Brandyn Garcia	Blake Dunn	0	—	—	SI 63%, ST 24%, SL 13%	—	UNKNOWN
Brandyn Garcia	Edwin Arroyo	0	—	—	SI 63%, ST 24%, SL 13%	—	UNKNOWN
Brandyn Garcia	Spencer Steer	0	—	—	SI 63%, ST 24%, SL 13%	Split-Finger	UNKNOWN
Brandyn Garcia	Sal Stewart	0	—	—	SI 63%, ST 24%, SL 13%	—	UNKNOWN
Brandyn Garcia	JJ Bleday	0	—	—	SI 63%, ST 24%, SL 13%	Split-Finger	UNKNOWN
Caleb Ferguson	Ketel Marte	0	—	—	SI 59%, FC 29%, SV 12%	Cutter	UNKNOWN
Caleb Ferguson	Corbin Carroll	0	—	—	SI 59%, FC 29%, SV 12%	—	UNKNOWN
Caleb Ferguson	Gabriel Moreno	0	—	—	SI 59%, FC 29%, SV 12%	—	UNKNOWN
Caleb Ferguson	Nolan Arenado	0	—	—	SI 59%, FC 29%, SV 12%	Split-Finger	UNKNOWN
Caleb Ferguson	Ildemaro Vargas	0	—	—	SI 59%, FC 29%, SV 12%	Curveball	UNKNOWN
Caleb Ferguson	Geraldo Perdomo	0	—	—	SI 59%, FC 29%, SV 12%	—	UNKNOWN
Caleb Ferguson	Jordan Lawlar	0	—	—	SI 59%, FC 29%, SV 12%	—	UNKNOWN
Caleb Ferguson	LuJames Groover	0	—	—	SI 59%, FC 29%, SV 12%	—	UNKNOWN
Caleb Ferguson	Jorge Barrosa	0	—	—	SI 59%, FC 29%, SV 12%	—	UNKNOWN
Chase Petty	Jorge Barrosa	0	—	—	SI 25%, CH 23%, SL 20%	—	UNKNOWN
Chase Petty	Ketel Marte	0	—	—	SI 25%, CH 23%, SL 20%	Cutter	UNKNOWN
Chase Petty	Corbin Carroll	0	—	—	SI 25%, CH 23%, SL 20%	—	UNKNOWN
Chase Petty	Gabriel Moreno	0	—	—	SI 25%, CH 23%, SL 20%	—	UNKNOWN
Chase Petty	Nolan Arenado	0	—	—	SI 25%, CH 23%, SL 20%	Split-Finger	UNKNOWN
Chase Petty	Ildemaro Vargas	0	—	—	SI 25%, CH 23%, SL 20%	Curveball	UNKNOWN
Chase Petty	Geraldo Perdomo	0	—	—	SI 25%, CH 23%, SL 20%	—	UNKNOWN
Chase Petty	Jordan Lawlar	0	—	—	SI 25%, CH 23%, SL 20%	—	UNKNOWN
Chase Petty	LuJames Groover	0	—	—	SI 25%, CH 23%, SL 20%	—	UNKNOWN
Jonathan Loáisiga	Dane Myers	0	—	—	SI 32%, CH 30%, CU 19%	Curveball	UNKNOWN
Jonathan Loáisiga	Matt McLain	0	—	—	SI 32%, CH 30%, CU 19%	—	UNKNOWN
Jonathan Loáisiga	P.J. Higgins	0	—	—	SI 32%, CH 30%, CU 19%	Slider	UNKNOWN
Jonathan Loáisiga	Noelvi Marte	0	—	—	SI 32%, CH 30%, CU 19%	—	UNKNOWN
Jonathan Loáisiga	Blake Dunn	0	—	—	SI 32%, CH 30%, CU 19%	—	UNKNOWN
Jonathan Loáisiga	Edwin Arroyo	0	—	—	SI 32%, CH 30%, CU 19%	—	UNKNOWN
Jonathan Loáisiga	JJ Bleday	0	—	—	SI 32%, CH 30%, CU 19%	Split-Finger	UNKNOWN
Kevin Ginkel	Dane Myers	0	—	—	SL 53%, FF 44%, SI 3%	Curveball	UNKNOWN

Top 3 hitter advantages

Ketel Marte vs Rhett Lowder

58Neutral

JJ Bleday vs Michael Soroka

56Neutral

Sal Stewart vs Michael Soroka

40Low sample

Top 3 pitcher advantages

Rhett Lowder vs Nolan Arenado73

Michael Soroka vs Dane Myers71

Rhett Lowder vs Ildemaro Vargas70