Final
ARI5β3
Final
CINLine score not available yet.
NYX Live Trend
Trend begins at first pitch.
Model-based game control score derived from live play-by-play. Not betting odds.
Postgame Review
What changed after first pitch.
Result
D-backs won Β· D-backs 5, Reds 3
Pregame edge
Reds Β· missed
Pregame Snapshot
Before first pitch, NYX expectedβ¦
NYX Win Edge
Reds 53% to Win
Slight EdgeConfirmed
Updated after confirmed lineups. Model-based estimate, not betting odds.
Why we like Reds
- βStrong home-field advantage
- βBetter starter projection
- βBetter bullpen quality
- βLower bullpen fatigue
- βBetter recent form
Home Advantage
Reds home50%17β17
D-backs road40%14β21
Home Edge+10
Team Story
Reds carries the model's edge into this matchup. D-backs can lean on a deeper bullpen, but Reds brings the stronger overall context.
Game Notes
- β’Sal Stewart leads the Reds with 13 HR
- β’Corbin Carroll leads the D-backs with 12 HR
- β’Elly De La Cruz leads the Reds with 65 hits
- β’Corbin Carroll leads the D-backs with 70 hits
- β’Reds are 17β17 at home this season
Overall MatchupD-backsReds
44
50
Matchup Scorecard
D-backsReds
2541
Starting Pitching
5953
Bullpen
3846
Offense
2341
Run Prevention
7167
Context & Health
D-backs @ Reds
NYX Engine v2.2Walk-Forward Validated
Key Drivers
- Starting PitchingReds +4.2
- Run PreventionReds +2.4
- OffenseReds +1.4
- BullpenD-backs -1.3
- HealthD-backs -1.1
What Could Flip It
- β’If Arizona Diamondbacks health delivers, it could swing the game
- β’If Arizona Diamondbacks bullpen delivers, it could swing the game
- β’Home & Environment is near-even and could decide it
Prediction Timeline
How the NYX read moved before first pitch.
- 53%Initial Read
Health & Availability
D-backsβ
β
β
β
β
1 regular(s) out
Redsβ
β
β
β
β
2 regular(s) out
Away starter
Zac Gallen
ProbableData quality: Medium
βΈShow stats
Season stats unavailable
Arsenal unavailable
Source: MLB schedule
Cincinnati Reds holds a 19.5-pt model edge (Cincinnati Reds 61.2 vs Arizona Diamondbacks 41.8). Confidence 100% (high data). Analysis edge only β not betting advice.
Last 10 Meetings
D-backs lead 2β1D-backs
WLW
Reds
LWL
Oldest β most recent Β· completed MLB games