Scheduled
NYMvs--Local Time
CINStarter
Burns
NYX Live Trend
Trend begins at first pitch.
Model-based game control score derived from live play-by-play. Not betting odds.
Pregame Snapshot
Before first pitch, NYX expectedβ¦
NYX Win Edge
Mets 54% to Win
Slight EdgeProjected
Updated after confirmed lineups. Model-based estimate, not betting odds.
Reds also brings
- β’Lower bullpen fatigue
- β’Home field
Why we like Mets
- βBetter offensive production
- βModel projects the overall edge
Home Advantage
Reds home50%17β17
Mets road40%14β21
Home Edge+10
Game Notes
- β’Sal Stewart leads the Reds with 13 HR
- β’Juan Soto leads the Mets with 15 HR
- β’Elly De La Cruz leads the Reds with 65 hits
- β’Bo Bichette leads the Mets with 68 hits
- β’Reds are 17β17 at home this season
Overall MatchupMetsReds
68
60
Matchup Scorecard
MetsReds
β87
Starting Pitching
8053
Bullpen
6846
Offense
5541
Run Prevention
5657
Context & Health
Mets @ Reds
NYX Engine v2.2Walk-Forward Validated
Key Drivers
- BullpenMets -6.1
- OffenseMets -4.1
- Run PreventionMets -1.7
- Home AdvantageReds +0.1
Risk Factors
- β’Probable starter TBD β starting-pitching edge is limited
What Could Flip It
- β’If Cincinnati Reds home & environment delivers, it could swing the game
- β’Home & Environment is near-even and could decide it
Starter TBD β model currently relies more heavily on team offense, bullpen, run prevention, and recent form until probable starters are confirmed.
Prediction Timeline
How the NYX read moved before first pitch.
- 46%Initial Read
Health & Availability
Metsβ
β
β
β
β
Full strength
Redsβ
β
β
β
β
Full strength
Away starter
Huascar BrazobΓ‘n
ProjectedData quality: Low
Projected from recent rotation pattern. Subject to change.
βΈShow stats
Season stats unavailable
Arsenal unavailable
Source: Rotation estimate
Home starter
Chase Burns
ConfirmedData quality: Medium
βΈShow stats
Season stats unavailable
Arsenal unavailable
Source: MLB schedule
Cincinnati Reds holds a 33.3-pt model edge (Cincinnati Reds 33.3 vs New York Mets 0.0). Confidence 0% (low data). Analysis edge only β not betting advice.
New York Mets
form 39OPS.697
AVG.227
OBP.275
SLG.422
ISO.196
HR11
K%24.4%
BB%6.1%
Runs24