Analysis edge is not betting advice. Scores are based on available public data and may be incomplete.
NyxAether

Matchup Scorecard β€” Houston Astros @ Kansas City Royals

Tatsuya Imai vs Luinder Avila
Final Β· Started --Β· game day 2026-06-12
Edge: Houston Astros +11.7LOWHouston Astros lineup holds the matchup edge (+11.65). Based on pitch-type fit + limited 1:1 history.

Small historical sample: pitch-type profile and recent form are weighted more heavily. confirmed_lineup / probable_lineup / roster_proxy.

Nyx Analysis

  • β€’The Houston Astros are favored on a stronger starter and a stronger bullpen.
β–ΈSupporting data

matchup.edge: team=Houston Astros Β· reasons=sp,bp Β· edge=8

Tatsuya Imai vs Kansas City Royals lineup

vs Tatsuya Imai Β· lineup: confirmed_lineup

#BatterPAAVGOPSxwOBAK%Pitcher weaponDanger pitchEdgeConfSample
1Carter Jensen0β€”β€”β€”β€”Sliderβ€”Low sample20%TINY
2Bobby Witt Jr.0β€”β€”β€”β€”Sliderβ€”Low sample20%TINY
3Starling Marte0β€”β€”β€”β€”SliderSinkerNeutral20%TINY
4Maikel Garcia0β€”β€”β€”β€”Sliderβ€”Low sample20%TINY
5Jac Caglianone0β€”β€”β€”β€”Sliderβ€”Low sample20%TINY
6Salvador Perez0β€”β€”β€”β€”SliderSinkerPitcher edge20%TINY
7Michael Massey0β€”β€”β€”β€”Sliderβ€”Low sample20%TINY
8Lane Thomas0β€”β€”β€”β€”SliderSinkerPitcher edge20%TINY
9Isaac Collins0β€”β€”β€”β€”Sliderβ€”Low sample20%TINY

Luinder Avila vs Houston Astros lineup

vs Luinder Avila Β· lineup: confirmed_lineup

#BatterPAAVGOPSxwOBAK%Pitcher weaponDanger pitchEdgeConfSample
1Jeremy PeΓ±a0β€”β€”β€”β€”Slider4-Seam FastballNeutral20%TINY
2Yordan Alvarez0β€”β€”β€”β€”Sliderβ€”Low sample20%TINY
3Christian Walker0β€”β€”β€”β€”SliderSinkerPitcher edge20%TINY
4Isaac Paredes0β€”β€”β€”β€”Sliderβ€”Low sample20%TINY
5Jose Altuve0β€”β€”β€”β€”SliderChangeupPitcher edge20%TINY
6Brice Matthews0β€”β€”β€”β€”Sliderβ€”Low sample20%TINY
7Cam Smith0β€”β€”β€”β€”Sliderβ€”Low sample20%TINY
8Jake Meyers0β€”β€”β€”β€”Sliderβ€”Low sample20%TINY
9Christian VΓ‘zquez0β€”β€”β€”β€”Slider4-Seam FastballPitcher edge20%TINY

Pitch-type breakdown

Tatsuya Imai vs

No pitch-type history for this pairing.

Luinder Avila vs

No pitch-type history for this pairing.

Bullpen vs lineup (highest risk first)

RelieverBatterPAOPSxwOBAArsenalBatter weak vsRisk
AJ BlubaughIsaac Collins1β€”.702FF 50%, CH 22%, ST 20%β€”MEDIUM
AJ BlubaughBobby Witt Jr.1.000.434FF 50%, CH 22%, ST 20%β€”MEDIUM
Bryan KingCarter Jensen1β€”.702FF 62%, ST 27%, SI 11%β€”MEDIUM
Bryan KingIsaac Collins1β€”.733FF 62%, ST 27%, SI 11%β€”MEDIUM
Bryan KingBobby Witt Jr.12.000.484FF 62%, ST 27%, SI 11%β€”MEDIUM
Josh HaderMaikel Garcia1.000.654SI 75%, SL 25%β€”MEDIUM
Mason BlackYordan Alvarez23.5001.087ST 28%, SI 28%, FF 19%β€”MEDIUM
Mason BlackJeremy PeΓ±a1β€”.702ST 28%, SI 28%, FF 19%ChangeupMEDIUM
Mason BlackCam Smith1.0001.144ST 28%, SI 28%, FF 19%β€”MEDIUM
Mason BlackJose Altuve21.000.284ST 28%, SI 28%, FF 19%SinkerMEDIUM
Mason BlackIsaac Paredes2β€”.717ST 28%, SI 28%, FF 19%β€”MEDIUM
AJ BlubaughCarter Jensen1.000.103FF 50%, CH 22%, ST 20%β€”LOW
AJ BlubaughJac Caglianone1.000.000FF 50%, CH 22%, ST 20%β€”LOW
AJ BlubaughMaikel Garcia1.000.000FF 50%, CH 22%, ST 20%β€”LOW
Bryan KingLane Thomas1.000.000FF 62%, ST 27%, SI 11%CurveballLOW
Bryan KingStarling Marte1.000.159FF 62%, ST 27%, SI 11%CutterLOW
Josh HaderSalvador Perez1.000.081SI 75%, SL 25%ChangeupLOW
Josh HaderJac Caglianone1.000.057SI 75%, SL 25%β€”LOW
Mason BlackChristian VΓ‘zquez1.000.081ST 28%, SI 28%, FF 19%CurveballLOW
Mason BlackChristian Walker2.000.000ST 28%, SI 28%, FF 19%SweeperLOW
Steven CruzJeremy PeΓ±a1.000.003FF 59%, FC 24%, SL 18%ChangeupLOW
Steven CruzYordan Alvarez1.000.047FF 59%, FC 24%, SL 18%β€”LOW
Steven CruzCam Smith1.000.056FF 59%, FC 24%, SL 18%β€”LOW
Steven CruzChristian VΓ‘zquez1.000.184FF 59%, FC 24%, SL 18%CurveballLOW
AJ BlubaughLane Thomas0β€”β€”FF 50%, CH 22%, ST 20%CurveballUNKNOWN
AJ BlubaughMichael Massey0β€”β€”FF 50%, CH 22%, ST 20%β€”UNKNOWN
AJ BlubaughSalvador Perez0β€”β€”FF 50%, CH 22%, ST 20%ChangeupUNKNOWN
AJ BlubaughStarling Marte0β€”β€”FF 50%, CH 22%, ST 20%CutterUNKNOWN
Beck WayJeremy PeΓ±a0β€”β€”FC 39%, SI 23%, FF 23%ChangeupUNKNOWN
Beck WayYordan Alvarez0β€”β€”FC 39%, SI 23%, FF 23%β€”UNKNOWN
Beck WayChristian Walker0β€”β€”FC 39%, SI 23%, FF 23%SweeperUNKNOWN
Beck WayIsaac Paredes0β€”β€”FC 39%, SI 23%, FF 23%β€”UNKNOWN
Beck WayJose Altuve0β€”β€”FC 39%, SI 23%, FF 23%SinkerUNKNOWN
Beck WayBrice Matthews0β€”β€”FC 39%, SI 23%, FF 23%β€”UNKNOWN
Beck WayCam Smith0β€”β€”FC 39%, SI 23%, FF 23%β€”UNKNOWN
Beck WayJake Meyers0β€”β€”FC 39%, SI 23%, FF 23%β€”UNKNOWN
Beck WayChristian VΓ‘zquez0β€”β€”FC 39%, SI 23%, FF 23%CurveballUNKNOWN
Bryan AbreuBobby Witt Jr.0β€”β€”FF 49%, SL 48%, FC 4%β€”UNKNOWN
Bryan AbreuIsaac Collins0β€”β€”FF 49%, SL 48%, FC 4%β€”UNKNOWN
Bryan AbreuLane Thomas0β€”β€”FF 49%, SL 48%, FC 4%CurveballUNKNOWN

Top 3 hitter advantages

Yordan Alvarez vs Luinder Avila
54Low sample
Isaac Paredes vs Luinder Avila
54Low sample
Brice Matthews vs Luinder Avila
54Low sample

Top 3 pitcher advantages

Luinder Avila vs Christian VΓ‘zquez83
Tatsuya Imai vs Lane Thomas74
Luinder Avila vs Jose Altuve71