β back to gameScheduled
Matchup Scorecard β Philadelphia Phillies @ Milwaukee Brewers
Away starter
Aaron NolaConfirmed
Home starter
Shane DrohanConfirmed
Starts --Β· game day 2026-06-13
Edge: Philadelphia Phillies +0.6LOWPhiladelphia Phillies lineup holds the matchup edge (+0.56). Based on pitch-type fit + limited 1:1 history.
Small historical sample: pitch-type profile and recent form are weighted more heavily. confirmed_lineup / probable_lineup / roster_proxy.
Nyx Analysis
- β’The Milwaukee Brewers are favored on a deeper lineup and a stronger bullpen.
βΈSupporting data
matchup.edge: team=Milwaukee Brewers Β· reasons=bat,bp Β· edge=22
Aaron Nola vs Milwaukee Brewers lineup
vs Aaron Nola Β· lineup: roster_proxy
| # | Batter | PA | AVG | OPS | xwOBA | K% | Pitcher weapon | Danger pitch | Edge | Conf | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Christian Yelich | 0 | β | β | β | β | Knuckle Curve | Changeup | Neutral | 20% | TINY |
| 2 | Jackson Chourio | 0 | β | β | β | β | Knuckle Curve | β | Low sample | 20% | TINY |
| 3 | Brice Turang | 0 | β | β | β | β | Knuckle Curve | Cutter | Pitcher edge | 20% | TINY |
| 4 | William Contreras | 0 | β | β | β | β | Knuckle Curve | Knuckle Curve | Neutral | 20% | TINY |
| 5 | Jake Bauers | 0 | β | β | β | β | Knuckle Curve | Cutter | Batter edge | 20% | TINY |
| 6 | Sal Frelick | 0 | β | β | β | β | Knuckle Curve | β | Low sample | 20% | TINY |
| 7 | Garrett Mitchell | 0 | β | β | β | β | Knuckle Curve | 4-Seam Fastball | Neutral | 20% | TINY |
| 8 | David Hamilton | 0 | β | β | β | β | Knuckle Curve | Sinker | Pitcher edge | 20% | TINY |
| 9 | Joey Ortiz | 0 | β | β | β | β | Knuckle Curve | β | Low sample | 20% | TINY |
Shane Drohan vs Philadelphia Phillies lineup
vs Shane Drohan Β· lineup: roster_proxy
| # | Batter | PA | AVG | OPS | xwOBA | K% | Pitcher weapon | Danger pitch | Edge | Conf | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kyle Schwarber | 0 | β | β | β | β | Curveball | Cutter | Neutral | 20% | TINY |
| 2 | Trea Turner | 0 | β | β | β | β | Curveball | 4-Seam Fastball | Pitcher edge | 20% | TINY |
| 3 | Bryce Harper | 0 | β | β | β | β | Curveball | 4-Seam Fastball | Batter edge | 20% | TINY |
| 4 | Brandon Marsh | 0 | β | β | β | β | Curveball | Sinker | Neutral | 20% | TINY |
| 5 | Alec Bohm | 0 | β | β | β | β | Curveball | Curveball | Neutral | 20% | TINY |
| 6 | Bryson Stott | 0 | β | β | β | β | Curveball | β | Low sample | 20% | TINY |
| 7 | Gabriel Rincones Jr. | 0 | β | β | β | β | Curveball | β | Low sample | 20% | TINY |
| 8 | J.T. Realmuto | 0 | β | β | β | β | Curveball | Cutter | Neutral | 20% | TINY |
| 9 | Justin Crawford | 0 | β | β | β | β | Curveball | β | Low sample | 20% | TINY |
Pitch-type breakdown
Aaron Nola vs
No pitch-type history for this pairing.
Shane Drohan vs
No pitch-type history for this pairing.
Bullpen vs lineup (highest risk first)
| Reliever | Batter | PA | OPS | xwOBA | Arsenal | Batter weak vs | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Painter | Garrett Mitchell | 3 | .667 | .380 | FF 34%, SL 21%, FS 13% | Split-Finger | HIGH |
| Andrew Painter | Jackson Chourio | 3 | .667 | .555 | FF 34%, SL 21%, FS 13% | β | HIGH |
| Andrew Painter | Brice Turang | 3 | 1.000 | .380 | FF 34%, SL 21%, FS 13% | Sinker | HIGH |
| Andrew Painter | William Contreras | 2 | .500 | .375 | FF 34%, SL 21%, FS 13% | Sweeper | MEDIUM |
| Andrew Painter | Jake Bauers | 2 | 2.500 | .442 | FF 34%, SL 21%, FS 13% | Slider | MEDIUM |
| Tim Mayza | Joey Ortiz | 1 | 3.000 | .737 | SI 63%, SL 32%, FF 3% | β | MEDIUM |
| Tim Mayza | Jackson Chourio | 1 | .000 | .477 | SI 63%, SL 32%, FF 3% | β | MEDIUM |
| Andrew Painter | Christian Yelich | 3 | .000 | .051 | FF 34%, SL 21%, FS 13% | Slider | LOW |
| Andrew Painter | Joey Ortiz | 3 | .667 | .216 | FF 34%, SL 21%, FS 13% | β | LOW |
| Andrew Painter | David Hamilton | 3 | .000 | .026 | FF 34%, SL 21%, FS 13% | Sweeper | LOW |
| Tim Mayza | Christian Yelich | 1 | .000 | .000 | SI 63%, SL 32%, FF 3% | Slider | LOW |
| Tim Mayza | David Hamilton | 1 | .000 | .000 | SI 63%, SL 32%, FF 3% | Sweeper | LOW |
| Aaron Ashby | Bryson Stott | 0 | β | β | SI 52%, CU 18%, SL 16% | β | UNKNOWN |
| Aaron Ashby | Gabriel Rincones Jr. | 0 | β | β | SI 52%, CU 18%, SL 16% | β | UNKNOWN |
| Aaron Ashby | J.T. Realmuto | 0 | β | β | SI 52%, CU 18%, SL 16% | Changeup | UNKNOWN |
| Aaron Ashby | Justin Crawford | 0 | β | β | SI 52%, CU 18%, SL 16% | β | UNKNOWN |
| Aaron Ashby | Kyle Schwarber | 0 | β | β | SI 52%, CU 18%, SL 16% | Sweeper | UNKNOWN |
| Aaron Ashby | Trea Turner | 0 | β | β | SI 52%, CU 18%, SL 16% | Sweeper | UNKNOWN |
| Aaron Ashby | Bryce Harper | 0 | β | β | SI 52%, CU 18%, SL 16% | Knuckle Curve | UNKNOWN |
| Aaron Ashby | Brandon Marsh | 0 | β | β | SI 52%, CU 18%, SL 16% | Split-Finger | UNKNOWN |
| Aaron Ashby | Alec Bohm | 0 | β | β | SI 52%, CU 18%, SL 16% | Sweeper | UNKNOWN |
| Andrew Painter | Sal Frelick | 0 | β | β | FF 34%, SL 21%, FS 13% | β | UNKNOWN |
| Brad Keller | Joey Ortiz | 0 | β | β | FF 32%, SI 21%, SL 20% | β | UNKNOWN |
| Brad Keller | David Hamilton | 0 | β | β | FF 32%, SI 21%, SL 20% | Sweeper | UNKNOWN |
| Brad Keller | Garrett Mitchell | 0 | β | β | FF 32%, SI 21%, SL 20% | Split-Finger | UNKNOWN |
| Brad Keller | Sal Frelick | 0 | β | β | FF 32%, SI 21%, SL 20% | β | UNKNOWN |
| Brad Keller | Jake Bauers | 0 | β | β | FF 32%, SI 21%, SL 20% | Slider | UNKNOWN |
| Brad Keller | William Contreras | 0 | β | β | FF 32%, SI 21%, SL 20% | Sweeper | UNKNOWN |
| Brad Keller | Brice Turang | 0 | β | β | FF 32%, SI 21%, SL 20% | Sinker | UNKNOWN |
| Brad Keller | Jackson Chourio | 0 | β | β | FF 32%, SI 21%, SL 20% | β | UNKNOWN |
| Brad Keller | Christian Yelich | 0 | β | β | FF 32%, SI 21%, SL 20% | Slider | UNKNOWN |
| Chad Patrick | Bryson Stott | 0 | β | β | FC 41%, FF 25%, SI 21% | β | UNKNOWN |
| Chad Patrick | Alec Bohm | 0 | β | β | FC 41%, FF 25%, SI 21% | Sweeper | UNKNOWN |
| Chad Patrick | Brandon Marsh | 0 | β | β | FC 41%, FF 25%, SI 21% | Split-Finger | UNKNOWN |
| Chad Patrick | Bryce Harper | 0 | β | β | FC 41%, FF 25%, SI 21% | Knuckle Curve | UNKNOWN |
| Chad Patrick | Trea Turner | 0 | β | β | FC 41%, FF 25%, SI 21% | Sweeper | UNKNOWN |
| Chad Patrick | Kyle Schwarber | 0 | β | β | FC 41%, FF 25%, SI 21% | Sweeper | UNKNOWN |
| Chad Patrick | Justin Crawford | 0 | β | β | FC 41%, FF 25%, SI 21% | β | UNKNOWN |
| Chad Patrick | J.T. Realmuto | 0 | β | β | FC 41%, FF 25%, SI 21% | Changeup | UNKNOWN |
| Chad Patrick | Gabriel Rincones Jr. | 0 | β | β | FC 41%, FF 25%, SI 21% | β | UNKNOWN |
Top 3 hitter advantages
Jake Bauers vs Aaron Nola
70Batter edge
Bryce Harper vs Shane Drohan
62Batter edge
Brandon Marsh vs Shane Drohan
55Neutral
Top 3 pitcher advantages
Aaron Nola vs Jackson Chourio67
Aaron Nola vs Sal Frelick67
Aaron Nola vs Joey Ortiz67