Nyx Aether Baseball

Matchup Scorecard — Los Angeles Dodgers @ Pittsburgh Pirates

Justin Wrobleski vs Mitch Keller

Final · Started --· game day 2026-06-11

Edge: Los Angeles Dodgers +12.7LOWLos Angeles Dodgers lineup holds the matchup edge (+12.73). Based on pitch-type fit + limited 1:1 history.

Small historical sample: pitch-type profile and recent form are weighted more heavily. confirmed_lineup / probable_lineup / roster_proxy.

Nyx Analysis

•The Los Angeles Dodgers are favored on a stronger starter, a deeper lineup and a stronger bullpen.

▸Supporting data

matchup.edge: team=Los Angeles Dodgers · reasons=sp,bat,bp · edge=21

Justin Wrobleski vs Pittsburgh Pirates lineup

vs Justin Wrobleski · lineup: confirmed_lineup

#	Batter	AVG	OPS	xwOBA	K%	Pitcher weapon	Danger pitch	Edge	Conf	Sample
1	Nick Gonzales	—	—	—	—	4-Seam Fastball	—	Low sample	20%	TINY
2	Brandon Lowe	—	—	—	—	4-Seam Fastball	4-Seam Fastball	Pitcher edge	20%	TINY
3	Bryan Reynolds	—	—	—	—	4-Seam Fastball	Sinker	Batter edge	20%	TINY
4	Ryan O'Hearn	—	—	—	—	4-Seam Fastball	4-Seam Fastball	Pitcher edge	20%	TINY
4	Marcell Ozuna	—	—	—	—	4-Seam Fastball	4-Seam Fastball	Neutral	20%	TINY
5	Spencer Horwitz	—	—	—	—	4-Seam Fastball	—	Low sample	20%	TINY
6	Esmerlyn Valdez	—	—	—	—	4-Seam Fastball	—	Low sample	20%	TINY
7	Jake Mangum	—	—	—	—	4-Seam Fastball	Changeup	Neutral	20%	TINY
7	Billy Cook	—	—	—	—	4-Seam Fastball	—	Low sample	20%	TINY
8	Rafael Flores Jr.	—	—	—	—	4-Seam Fastball	—	Low sample	20%	TINY
9	Jared Triolo	—	—	—	—	4-Seam Fastball	Curveball	Pitcher edge	20%	TINY

Mitch Keller vs Los Angeles Dodgers lineup

vs Mitch Keller · lineup: confirmed_lineup

#	Batter	AVG	OPS	xwOBA	K%	Pitcher weapon	Danger pitch	Edge	Conf	Sample
1	Shohei Ohtani	—	—	—	—	Slider	Sinker	Batter edge	20%	TINY
2	Andy Pages	—	—	—	—	Slider	Sweeper	Neutral	20%	TINY
3	Freddie Freeman	—	—	—	—	Slider	Curveball	Neutral	20%	TINY
4	Mookie Betts	—	—	—	—	Slider	Sinker	Pitcher edge	20%	TINY
5	Max Muncy	—	—	—	—	Slider	4-Seam Fastball	Pitcher edge	20%	TINY
6	Kyle Tucker	—	—	—	—	Slider	Cutter	Neutral	20%	TINY
7	Alex Call	—	—	—	—	Slider	Sweeper	Neutral	20%	TINY
7	Ryan Ward	—	—	—	—	Slider	Slider	Pitcher edge	20%	TINY
8	Dalton Rushing	—	—	—	—	Slider	—	Low sample	20%	TINY
9	Miguel Rojas	—	—	—	—	Slider	Slider	Neutral	20%	TINY
9	Alex Freeland	—	—	—	—	Slider	—	Low sample	20%	TINY

Pitch-type breakdown

Justin Wrobleski vs

No pitch-type history for this pairing.

Mitch Keller vs

No pitch-type history for this pairing.

Bullpen vs lineup (highest risk first)

Reliever	Batter	PA	OPS	xwOBA	Arsenal	Batter weak vs	Risk
Blake Treinen	Jared Triolo	1	—	.701	ST 42%, SI 39%, FF 10%	Cutter	MEDIUM
Blake Treinen	Nick Gonzales	1	.000	.000	ST 42%, SI 39%, FF 10%	—	LOW
Blake Treinen	Jake Mangum	1	.000	.000	ST 42%, SI 39%, FF 10%	Split-Finger	LOW
Alex Vesia	Ryan O'Hearn	0	—	—	FF 54%, SL 33%, CH 13%	Curveball	UNKNOWN
Alex Vesia	Billy Cook	0	—	—	FF 54%, SL 33%, CH 13%	—	UNKNOWN
Alex Vesia	Nick Gonzales	0	—	—	FF 54%, SL 33%, CH 13%	—	UNKNOWN
Alex Vesia	Brandon Lowe	0	—	—	FF 54%, SL 33%, CH 13%	Knuckle Curve	UNKNOWN
Alex Vesia	Bryan Reynolds	0	—	—	FF 54%, SL 33%, CH 13%	Knuckle Curve	UNKNOWN
Alex Vesia	Marcell Ozuna	0	—	—	FF 54%, SL 33%, CH 13%	Knuckle Curve	UNKNOWN
Alex Vesia	Spencer Horwitz	0	—	—	FF 54%, SL 33%, CH 13%	—	UNKNOWN
Alex Vesia	Esmerlyn Valdez	0	—	—	FF 54%, SL 33%, CH 13%	—	UNKNOWN
Alex Vesia	Jake Mangum	0	—	—	FF 54%, SL 33%, CH 13%	Split-Finger	UNKNOWN
Alex Vesia	Rafael Flores Jr.	0	—	—	FF 54%, SL 33%, CH 13%	—	UNKNOWN
Alex Vesia	Jared Triolo	0	—	—	FF 54%, SL 33%, CH 13%	Cutter	UNKNOWN
Blake Treinen	Rafael Flores Jr.	0	—	—	ST 42%, SI 39%, FF 10%	—	UNKNOWN
Blake Treinen	Esmerlyn Valdez	0	—	—	ST 42%, SI 39%, FF 10%	—	UNKNOWN
Blake Treinen	Spencer Horwitz	0	—	—	ST 42%, SI 39%, FF 10%	—	UNKNOWN
Blake Treinen	Marcell Ozuna	0	—	—	ST 42%, SI 39%, FF 10%	Knuckle Curve	UNKNOWN
Blake Treinen	Bryan Reynolds	0	—	—	ST 42%, SI 39%, FF 10%	Knuckle Curve	UNKNOWN
Blake Treinen	Brandon Lowe	0	—	—	ST 42%, SI 39%, FF 10%	Knuckle Curve	UNKNOWN
Blake Treinen	Billy Cook	0	—	—	ST 42%, SI 39%, FF 10%	—	UNKNOWN
Blake Treinen	Ryan O'Hearn	0	—	—	ST 42%, SI 39%, FF 10%	Curveball	UNKNOWN
Brandan Bidois	Alex Call	0	—	—	FF 60%, SL 34%, CH 6%	Curveball	UNKNOWN
Brandan Bidois	Alex Freeland	0	—	—	FF 60%, SL 34%, CH 6%	—	UNKNOWN
Brandan Bidois	Dalton Rushing	0	—	—	FF 60%, SL 34%, CH 6%	—	UNKNOWN
Brandan Bidois	Ryan Ward	0	—	—	FF 60%, SL 34%, CH 6%	Changeup	UNKNOWN
Brandan Bidois	Kyle Tucker	0	—	—	FF 60%, SL 34%, CH 6%	Sweeper	UNKNOWN
Brandan Bidois	Max Muncy	0	—	—	FF 60%, SL 34%, CH 6%	Slurve	UNKNOWN
Brandan Bidois	Mookie Betts	0	—	—	FF 60%, SL 34%, CH 6%	Curveball	UNKNOWN
Brandan Bidois	Freddie Freeman	0	—	—	FF 60%, SL 34%, CH 6%	Sweeper	UNKNOWN
Brandan Bidois	Andy Pages	0	—	—	FF 60%, SL 34%, CH 6%	—	UNKNOWN
Brandan Bidois	Shohei Ohtani	0	—	—	FF 60%, SL 34%, CH 6%	Sweeper	UNKNOWN
Brandan Bidois	Miguel Rojas	0	—	—	FF 60%, SL 34%, CH 6%	4-Seam Fastball	UNKNOWN
Carmen Mlodzinski	Alex Freeland	0	—	—	FS 27%, FF 26%, SI 20%	—	UNKNOWN
Carmen Mlodzinski	Alex Call	0	—	—	FS 27%, FF 26%, SI 20%	Curveball	UNKNOWN
Carmen Mlodzinski	Miguel Rojas	0	—	—	FS 27%, FF 26%, SI 20%	4-Seam Fastball	UNKNOWN
Carmen Mlodzinski	Shohei Ohtani	0	—	—	FS 27%, FF 26%, SI 20%	Sweeper	UNKNOWN
Carmen Mlodzinski	Andy Pages	0	—	—	FS 27%, FF 26%, SI 20%	—	UNKNOWN
Carmen Mlodzinski	Freddie Freeman	0	—	—	FS 27%, FF 26%, SI 20%	Sweeper	UNKNOWN
Carmen Mlodzinski	Mookie Betts	0	—	—	FS 27%, FF 26%, SI 20%	Curveball	UNKNOWN

Top 3 hitter advantages

Shohei Ohtani vs Mitch Keller

71Batter edge

Bryan Reynolds vs Justin Wrobleski

61Batter edge

Freddie Freeman vs Mitch Keller

57Neutral

Top 3 pitcher advantages

Justin Wrobleski vs Ryan O'Hearn83

Justin Wrobleski vs Jared Triolo77

Justin Wrobleski vs Nick Gonzales75