Nyx Aether Baseball

Matchup Scorecard — Miami Marlins @ Pittsburgh Pirates

Sandy Alcantara vs Braxton Ashcraft

Final · Started --· game day 2026-06-12

Edge: Pittsburgh Pirates +7.8LOWPittsburgh Pirates lineup holds the matchup edge (+7.82). Based on pitch-type fit + limited 1:1 history.

Small historical sample: pitch-type profile and recent form are weighted more heavily. confirmed_lineup / probable_lineup / roster_proxy.

Nyx Analysis

•The Pittsburgh Pirates are favored on a stronger starter and a deeper lineup.

▸Supporting data

matchup.edge: team=Pittsburgh Pirates · reasons=sp,bat · edge=7

Sandy Alcantara vs Pittsburgh Pirates lineup

vs Sandy Alcantara · lineup: roster_proxy

#	Batter	AVG	OPS	xwOBA	K%	Pitcher weapon	Danger pitch	Edge	Conf	Sample
1	Nick Gonzales	—	—	—	—	Changeup	—	Low sample	20%	TINY
2	Brandon Lowe	—	—	—	—	Changeup	4-Seam Fastball	Pitcher edge	20%	TINY
3	Bryan Reynolds	—	—	—	—	Changeup	Sinker	Neutral	20%	TINY
4	Ryan O'Hearn	—	—	—	—	Changeup	4-Seam Fastball	Pitcher edge	20%	TINY
5	Spencer Horwitz	—	—	—	—	Changeup	—	Low sample	20%	TINY
6	Tyler Callihan	—	—	—	—	Changeup	—	Low sample	20%	TINY
7	Jake Mangum	—	—	—	—	Changeup	Curveball	Pitcher edge	20%	TINY
8	Rafael Flores Jr.	—	—	—	—	Changeup	—	Low sample	20%	TINY
9	Jared Triolo	—	—	—	—	Changeup	Changeup	Pitcher edge	20%	TINY

Braxton Ashcraft vs Miami Marlins lineup

vs Braxton Ashcraft · lineup: roster_proxy

#	Batter	AVG	OPS	xwOBA	K%	Pitcher weapon	Danger pitch	Edge	Conf	Sample
1	Liam Hicks	—	—	—	—	Curveball	—	Low sample	20%	TINY
2	Otto Lopez	—	—	—	—	Curveball	Sinker	Neutral	20%	TINY
3	Kyle Stowers	—	—	—	—	Curveball	Curveball	Pitcher edge	20%	TINY
4	Xavier Edwards	—	—	—	—	Curveball	4-Seam Fastball	Neutral	20%	TINY
5	Javier Sanoja	—	—	—	—	Curveball	—	Low sample	20%	TINY
6	Heriberto Hernández	—	—	—	—	Curveball	—	Low sample	20%	TINY
7	Jakob Marsee	—	—	—	—	Curveball	—	Low sample	20%	TINY
8	Joe Mack	—	—	—	—	Curveball	—	Low sample	20%	TINY
9	Esteury Ruiz	—	—	—	—	Curveball	4-Seam Fastball	Pitcher edge	20%	TINY

Pitch-type breakdown

Sandy Alcantara vs

No pitch-type history for this pairing.

Braxton Ashcraft vs

No pitch-type history for this pairing.

Bullpen vs lineup (highest risk first)

Reliever	Batter	OPS	xwOBA	Arsenal	Batter weak vs	Risk
Anthony Bender	Tyler Callihan	—	—	ST 49%, SI 33%, SL 14%	—	UNKNOWN
Anthony Bender	Spencer Horwitz	—	—	ST 49%, SI 33%, SL 14%	—	UNKNOWN
Anthony Bender	Ryan O'Hearn	—	—	ST 49%, SI 33%, SL 14%	Curveball	UNKNOWN
Anthony Bender	Bryan Reynolds	—	—	ST 49%, SI 33%, SL 14%	Knuckle Curve	UNKNOWN
Anthony Bender	Rafael Flores Jr.	—	—	ST 49%, SI 33%, SL 14%	—	UNKNOWN
Anthony Bender	Jake Mangum	—	—	ST 49%, SI 33%, SL 14%	Split-Finger	UNKNOWN
Anthony Bender	Brandon Lowe	—	—	ST 49%, SI 33%, SL 14%	Knuckle Curve	UNKNOWN
Anthony Bender	Nick Gonzales	—	—	ST 49%, SI 33%, SL 14%	—	UNKNOWN
Anthony Bender	Jared Triolo	—	—	ST 49%, SI 33%, SL 14%	Cutter	UNKNOWN
Brandan Bidois	Javier Sanoja	—	—	FF 60%, SL 35%, CH 5%	—	UNKNOWN
Brandan Bidois	Jakob Marsee	—	—	FF 60%, SL 35%, CH 5%	—	UNKNOWN
Brandan Bidois	Joe Mack	—	—	FF 60%, SL 35%, CH 5%	—	UNKNOWN
Brandan Bidois	Esteury Ruiz	—	—	FF 60%, SL 35%, CH 5%	Cutter	UNKNOWN
Brandan Bidois	Liam Hicks	—	—	FF 60%, SL 35%, CH 5%	—	UNKNOWN
Brandan Bidois	Otto Lopez	—	—	FF 60%, SL 35%, CH 5%	Changeup	UNKNOWN
Brandan Bidois	Kyle Stowers	—	—	FF 60%, SL 35%, CH 5%	Knuckle Curve	UNKNOWN
Brandan Bidois	Xavier Edwards	—	—	FF 60%, SL 35%, CH 5%	Knuckle Curve	UNKNOWN
Brandan Bidois	Heriberto Hernández	—	—	FF 60%, SL 35%, CH 5%	—	UNKNOWN
Calvin Faucher	Nick Gonzales	—	—	FC 44%, ST 22%, CU 15%	—	UNKNOWN
Calvin Faucher	Jared Triolo	—	—	FC 44%, ST 22%, CU 15%	Cutter	UNKNOWN
Calvin Faucher	Rafael Flores Jr.	—	—	FC 44%, ST 22%, CU 15%	—	UNKNOWN
Calvin Faucher	Jake Mangum	—	—	FC 44%, ST 22%, CU 15%	Split-Finger	UNKNOWN
Calvin Faucher	Tyler Callihan	—	—	FC 44%, ST 22%, CU 15%	—	UNKNOWN
Calvin Faucher	Spencer Horwitz	—	—	FC 44%, ST 22%, CU 15%	—	UNKNOWN
Calvin Faucher	Ryan O'Hearn	—	—	FC 44%, ST 22%, CU 15%	Curveball	UNKNOWN
Calvin Faucher	Bryan Reynolds	—	—	FC 44%, ST 22%, CU 15%	Knuckle Curve	UNKNOWN
Calvin Faucher	Brandon Lowe	—	—	FC 44%, ST 22%, CU 15%	Knuckle Curve	UNKNOWN
Carmen Mlodzinski	Jakob Marsee	—	—	FS 27%, FF 26%, SI 20%	—	UNKNOWN
Carmen Mlodzinski	Esteury Ruiz	—	—	FS 27%, FF 26%, SI 20%	Cutter	UNKNOWN
Carmen Mlodzinski	Liam Hicks	—	—	FS 27%, FF 26%, SI 20%	—	UNKNOWN
Carmen Mlodzinski	Otto Lopez	—	—	FS 27%, FF 26%, SI 20%	Changeup	UNKNOWN
Carmen Mlodzinski	Kyle Stowers	—	—	FS 27%, FF 26%, SI 20%	Knuckle Curve	UNKNOWN
Carmen Mlodzinski	Xavier Edwards	—	—	FS 27%, FF 26%, SI 20%	Knuckle Curve	UNKNOWN
Carmen Mlodzinski	Javier Sanoja	—	—	FS 27%, FF 26%, SI 20%	—	UNKNOWN
Carmen Mlodzinski	Heriberto Hernández	—	—	FS 27%, FF 26%, SI 20%	—	UNKNOWN
Carmen Mlodzinski	Joe Mack	—	—	FS 27%, FF 26%, SI 20%	—	UNKNOWN
Dennis Santana	Liam Hicks	—	—	SL 34%, FF 32%, CH 16%	—	UNKNOWN
Dennis Santana	Otto Lopez	—	—	SL 34%, FF 32%, CH 16%	Changeup	UNKNOWN
Dennis Santana	Kyle Stowers	—	—	SL 34%, FF 32%, CH 16%	Knuckle Curve	UNKNOWN
Dennis Santana	Xavier Edwards	—	—	SL 34%, FF 32%, CH 16%	Knuckle Curve	UNKNOWN

Top 3 hitter advantages

Bryan Reynolds vs Sandy Alcantara

55Neutral

Otto Lopez vs Braxton Ashcraft

46Neutral

Xavier Edwards vs Braxton Ashcraft

43Neutral

Top 3 pitcher advantages

Braxton Ashcraft vs Esteury Ruiz75

Braxton Ashcraft vs Liam Hicks73

Braxton Ashcraft vs Javier Sanoja73