Nyx Aether Baseball

Matchup Scorecard — Miami Marlins @ Pittsburgh Pirates

Away starter

Lake BacharConfirmed

Home starter

Bubba ChandlerConfirmed

Starts --· game day 2026-06-13

Edge: Miami Marlins +4.2LOWMiami Marlins lineup holds the matchup edge (+4.16). Based on pitch-type fit + limited 1:1 history.

Small historical sample: pitch-type profile and recent form are weighted more heavily. confirmed_lineup / probable_lineup / roster_proxy.

Nyx Analysis

•The Miami Marlins are favored on a stronger starter, a deeper lineup and a stronger bullpen.
•Limited sample size — confidence is capped.

▸Supporting data

matchup.edge: team=Miami Marlins · reasons=sp,bat,bp · edge=16

matchup.lowSample: —

Lake Bachar vs Pittsburgh Pirates lineup

vs Lake Bachar · lineup: roster_proxy

#	Batter	AVG	OPS	xwOBA	K%	Pitcher weapon	Danger pitch	Edge	Conf	Sample
1	Spencer Horwitz	—	—	—	—	Sweeper	—	Low sample	20%	TINY
2	Brandon Lowe	—	—	—	—	Sweeper	4-Seam Fastball	Pitcher edge	20%	TINY
3	Bryan Reynolds	—	—	—	—	Sweeper	Sinker	Neutral	20%	TINY
4	Ryan O'Hearn	—	—	—	—	Sweeper	4-Seam Fastball	Pitcher edge	20%	TINY
5	Nick Gonzales	—	—	—	—	Sweeper	—	Low sample	20%	TINY
6	Esmerlyn Valdez	—	—	—	—	Sweeper	—	Low sample	20%	TINY
7	Endy Rodríguez	—	—	—	—	Sweeper	—	Low sample	20%	TINY
8	Jake Mangum	—	—	—	—	Sweeper	Slider	Pitcher edge	20%	TINY
9	Jared Triolo	—	—	—	—	Sweeper	Curveball	Pitcher edge	20%	TINY

Bubba Chandler vs Miami Marlins lineup

vs Bubba Chandler · lineup: roster_proxy

#	Batter	AVG	OPS	xwOBA	K%	Pitcher weapon	Danger pitch	Edge	Conf	Sample
1	Liam Hicks	—	—	—	—	Slider	—	Low sample	20%	TINY
2	Otto Lopez	—	—	—	—	Slider	—	Low sample	20%	TINY
3	Kyle Stowers	—	—	—	—	Slider	Sinker	Pitcher edge	20%	TINY
4	Xavier Edwards	—	—	—	—	Slider	4-Seam Fastball	Pitcher edge	20%	TINY
5	Esteury Ruiz	—	—	—	—	Slider	Changeup	Pitcher edge	20%	TINY
6	Owen Caissie	—	—	—	—	Slider	—	Low sample	20%	TINY
7	Jakob Marsee	—	—	—	—	Slider	—	Low sample	20%	TINY
8	Joe Mack	—	—	—	—	Slider	—	Low sample	20%	TINY
9	Javier Sanoja	—	—	—	—	Slider	—	Low sample	20%	TINY

Pitch-type breakdown

Lake Bachar vs

No pitch-type history for this pairing.

Bubba Chandler vs

No pitch-type history for this pairing.

Bullpen vs lineup (highest risk first)

Reliever	Batter	PA	OPS	xwOBA	Arsenal	Batter weak vs	Risk
Antwone Kelly	Javier Sanoja	1	3.000	.593	FF 48%, ST 27%, SL 15%	—	MEDIUM
Antwone Kelly	Liam Hicks	1	5.000	.114	FF 48%, ST 27%, SL 15%	—	MEDIUM
Antwone Kelly	Owen Caissie	1	.000	.614	FF 48%, ST 27%, SL 15%	—	MEDIUM
Wilber Dotel	Otto Lopez	1	2.000	.197	FF 49%, FC 20%, SL 20%	—	MEDIUM
Wilber Dotel	Kyle Stowers	1	—	.702	FF 49%, FC 20%, SL 20%	Knuckle Curve	MEDIUM
Wilber Dotel	Xavier Edwards	1	—	.581	FF 49%, FC 20%, SL 20%	—	MEDIUM
Wilber Dotel	Owen Caissie	2	1.500	.758	FF 49%, FC 20%, SL 20%	—	MEDIUM
Wilber Dotel	Joe Mack	1	—	.702	FF 49%, FC 20%, SL 20%	—	MEDIUM
Wilber Dotel	Liam Hicks	1	—	.702	FF 49%, FC 20%, SL 20%	—	MEDIUM
Antwone Kelly	Otto Lopez	1	.000	.299	FF 48%, ST 27%, SL 15%	—	LOW
Antwone Kelly	Kyle Stowers	1	.000	.066	FF 48%, ST 27%, SL 15%	Knuckle Curve	LOW
Antwone Kelly	Xavier Edwards	1	.000	.271	FF 48%, ST 27%, SL 15%	—	LOW
Antwone Kelly	Jakob Marsee	1	.000	.000	FF 48%, ST 27%, SL 15%	—	LOW
Antwone Kelly	Joe Mack	1	.000	.009	FF 48%, ST 27%, SL 15%	—	LOW
Wilber Dotel	Jakob Marsee	2	.000	.044	FF 49%, FC 20%, SL 20%	—	LOW
Wilber Dotel	Javier Sanoja	1	.000	.228	FF 49%, FC 20%, SL 20%	—	LOW
Anthony Bender	Jared Triolo	0	—	—	ST 47%, SI 33%, SL 15%	—	UNKNOWN
Anthony Bender	Jake Mangum	0	—	—	ST 47%, SI 33%, SL 15%	Split-Finger	UNKNOWN
Anthony Bender	Endy Rodríguez	0	—	—	ST 47%, SI 33%, SL 15%	—	UNKNOWN
Anthony Bender	Esmerlyn Valdez	0	—	—	ST 47%, SI 33%, SL 15%	—	UNKNOWN
Anthony Bender	Nick Gonzales	0	—	—	ST 47%, SI 33%, SL 15%	—	UNKNOWN
Anthony Bender	Ryan O'Hearn	0	—	—	ST 47%, SI 33%, SL 15%	Curveball	UNKNOWN
Anthony Bender	Bryan Reynolds	0	—	—	ST 47%, SI 33%, SL 15%	Knuckle Curve	UNKNOWN
Anthony Bender	Brandon Lowe	0	—	—	ST 47%, SI 33%, SL 15%	Knuckle Curve	UNKNOWN
Anthony Bender	Spencer Horwitz	0	—	—	ST 47%, SI 33%, SL 15%	—	UNKNOWN
Antwone Kelly	Esteury Ruiz	0	—	—	FF 48%, ST 27%, SL 15%	Cutter	UNKNOWN
Brandan Bidois	Liam Hicks	0	—	—	FF 57%, SL 39%, CH 4%	—	UNKNOWN
Brandan Bidois	Otto Lopez	0	—	—	FF 57%, SL 39%, CH 4%	—	UNKNOWN
Brandan Bidois	Kyle Stowers	0	—	—	FF 57%, SL 39%, CH 4%	Knuckle Curve	UNKNOWN
Brandan Bidois	Xavier Edwards	0	—	—	FF 57%, SL 39%, CH 4%	—	UNKNOWN
Brandan Bidois	Esteury Ruiz	0	—	—	FF 57%, SL 39%, CH 4%	Cutter	UNKNOWN
Brandan Bidois	Owen Caissie	0	—	—	FF 57%, SL 39%, CH 4%	—	UNKNOWN
Brandan Bidois	Jakob Marsee	0	—	—	FF 57%, SL 39%, CH 4%	—	UNKNOWN
Brandan Bidois	Joe Mack	0	—	—	FF 57%, SL 39%, CH 4%	—	UNKNOWN
Brandan Bidois	Javier Sanoja	0	—	—	FF 57%, SL 39%, CH 4%	—	UNKNOWN
Calvin Faucher	Brandon Lowe	0	—	—	FC 42%, ST 22%, CU 15%	Knuckle Curve	UNKNOWN
Calvin Faucher	Jared Triolo	0	—	—	FC 42%, ST 22%, CU 15%	—	UNKNOWN
Calvin Faucher	Jake Mangum	0	—	—	FC 42%, ST 22%, CU 15%	Split-Finger	UNKNOWN
Calvin Faucher	Spencer Horwitz	0	—	—	FC 42%, ST 22%, CU 15%	—	UNKNOWN
Calvin Faucher	Endy Rodríguez	0	—	—	FC 42%, ST 22%, CU 15%	—	UNKNOWN

Top 3 hitter advantages

Bryan Reynolds vs Lake Bachar

51Neutral

Esteury Ruiz vs Bubba Chandler

41Pitcher edge

Xavier Edwards vs Bubba Chandler

40Pitcher edge

Top 3 pitcher advantages

Lake Bachar vs Ryan O'Hearn75

Lake Bachar vs Jared Triolo72

Lake Bachar vs Spencer Horwitz72