Final
MIA4β2
Final
PITLine score not available yet.
NYX Live Trend
Trend begins at first pitch.
Model-based game control score derived from live play-by-play. Not betting odds.
Postgame Review
What changed after first pitch.
Result
Marlins won Β· Marlins 4, Pirates 2
Pregame edge
Pirates Β· missed
Pregame Snapshot
Before first pitch, NYX expectedβ¦
NYX Win Edge
Pirates 52% to Win
Toss-UpConfirmed
Updated after confirmed lineups. Model-based estimate, not betting odds.
Marlins also brings
- β’Better recent form
- β’Better bullpen quality
Why we like Pirates
- βStrong home-field advantage
- βHigh model confidence
- βBetter starter projection
- βLower bullpen fatigue
- βModel projects the overall edge
Home Advantage
Pirates home51%20β19
Marlins road39%13β20
Home Edge+12
Team Story
Pirates carries the model's edge into this matchup. Marlins brings real power upside at the plate, but the matchup leans Pirates on home context.
Game Notes
- β’Brandon Lowe leads the Pirates with 17 HR
- β’Liam Hicks leads the Marlins with 13 HR
- β’Nick Gonzales leads the Pirates with 74 hits
- β’Otto Lopez leads the Marlins with 97 hits
- β’Otto Lopez ranks #1 in MLB in AVG (.343)
Overall MatchupMarlinsPirates
67
68
Matchup Scorecard
MarlinsPirates
6095
Starting Pitching
8458
Bullpen
5756
Offense
6729
Run Prevention
6781
Context & Health
Marlins @ Pirates
NYX Engine v2.2Walk-Forward Validated
Key Drivers
- Starting PitchingPirates +9.2
- BullpenMarlins -5.7
- Run PreventionMarlins -4.8
- Home AdvantagePirates +1.8
- HealthPirates +1.1
What Could Flip It
- β’If Miami Marlins run prevention delivers, it could swing the game
- β’If Miami Marlins bullpen delivers, it could swing the game
- β’Offense is near-even and could decide it
Prediction Timeline
How the NYX read moved before first pitch.
- 52%Initial Read
Health & Availability
Marlinsβ
β
β
β
β
1 regular(s) out
Piratesβ
β
β
β
β
Full strength
Away starter
Max Meyer
ProbableData quality: Medium
βΈShow stats
Season stats unavailable
Arsenal unavailable
Source: MLB schedule
Home starter
Paul Skenes
ProbableData quality: Medium
βΈShow stats
Season stats unavailable
Arsenal unavailable
Source: MLB schedule
Matchup Edge
high dataconf 100%
Pittsburgh Pirates (home)vsMiami Marlins (away)
Pittsburgh Pirates edge +5.3
Miami Marlins holds a 5.3-pt model edge (Pittsburgh Pirates 54.8 vs Miami Marlins 60.1). Confidence 100% (high data). Analysis edge only β not betting advice.
Each score is 0β100, higher = stronger side. Left value / bar = Pittsburgh Pirates (home), right value = Miami Marlins (away).
61Starter59
Probable starter's recent form & expected runs β model weight 25%.
55Batting65
Lineup run production (OPS / xwOBA basis) β model weight 25%.
16Bullpen58
Miami Marlins holds a 5.3-pt model edge (Pittsburgh Pirates 54.8 vs Miami Marlins 60.1). Confidence 100% (high data). Analysis edge only β not betting advice.
Last 10 Meetings
Marlins lead 2β1Marlins
WLW
Pirates
LWL
Oldest β most recent Β· completed MLB games