Final
SEA3–8
Final
WSHLine score not available yet.
NYX Live Trend
Trend begins at first pitch.
Model-based game control score derived from live play-by-play. Not betting odds.
Postgame Review
What changed after first pitch.
Result
Nationals won · Mariners 3, Nationals 8
Pregame edge
Nationals · held up
Pregame Snapshot
Before first pitch, NYX expected…
NYX Win Edge
Nationals 50% to Win
Toss-UpConfirmed
Updated after confirmed lineups. Model-based estimate, not betting odds.
Mariners also brings
- •Better starter projection
- •Better bullpen quality
- •Lower bullpen fatigue
Why we like Nationals
- ✓Better recent form
- ✓Home field
- ✓High model confidence
- ✓Model projects the overall edge
Home Advantage
Nationals home40%14–21
Mariners road47%18–20
Home Edge-7
Team Story
Nationals carries the model's edge into this matchup. Mariners counters with a capable starter, but Nationals enters with the edge on the bats.
Game Notes
- •James Wood leads the Nationals with 20 HR
- •Julio Rodríguez leads the Mariners with 13 HR
- •James Wood leads the Nationals with 77 hits
- •Randy Arozarena leads the Mariners with 76 hits
- •James Wood ranks #4 in MLB in HR (20)
Overall MatchupMarinersNationals
56
47
Matchup Scorecard
MarinersNationals
5262
Starting Pitching
5439
Bullpen
6452
Offense
4613
Run Prevention
7263
Context & Health
Mariners @ Nationals
NYX Engine v2.2Walk-Forward Validated
Key Drivers
- Run PreventionMariners -4.6
- BullpenMariners -4.3
- Starting PitchingNationals +2.6
- OffenseMariners -2.0
- Home AdvantageMariners -1.1
What Could Flip It
- •If Seattle Mariners run prevention delivers, it could swing the game
- •If Seattle Mariners home & environment delivers, it could swing the game
- •Health is near-even and could decide it
Health & Availability
Mariners★★★★★1 regular(s) out
Nationals★★★★★1 regular(s) out
Away starter
Luis Castillo
ProbableData quality: Medium
▸Show stats
Season stats unavailable
Arsenal unavailable
Source: MLB schedule
Home starter
Cade Cavalli
ProbableData quality: Medium
▸Show stats
Season stats unavailable
Arsenal unavailable
Source: MLB schedule
Matchup Edge
high dataconf 100%
Washington Nationals (home)vsSeattle Mariners (away)
Washington Nationals edge +5.6
Seattle Mariners holds a 5.6-pt model edge (Washington Nationals 52.1 vs Seattle Mariners 57.7). Confidence 100% (high data). Analysis edge only — not betting advice.
Each score is 0–100, higher = stronger side. Left value / bar = Washington Nationals (home), right value = Seattle Mariners (away).
48Starter63
Probable starter's recent form & expected runs — model weight 25%.
71Batting51
Lineup run production (OPS / xwOBA basis) — model weight 25%.
15Bullpen49
Seattle Mariners holds a 5.6-pt model edge (Washington Nationals 52.1 vs Seattle Mariners 57.7). Confidence 100% (high data). Analysis edge only — not betting advice.
Last 10 Meetings
Nationals lead 2–1Mariners
WLL
Nationals
LWW
Oldest → most recent · completed MLB games