Final
Line score not available yet.
Trend begins at first pitch.
Model-based game control score derived from live play-by-play. Not betting odds.
What changed after first pitch.
Result
Nationals won · Mariners 3, Nationals 8
Pregame edge
Nationals · held up
Before first pitch, NYX expected…
NYX Win Edge
Nationals 50% to Win
Updated after confirmed lineups. Model-based estimate, not betting odds.
Mariners also brings
Home Advantage
Nationals carries the model's edge into this matchup. Mariners counters with a capable starter, but Nationals enters with the edge on the bats.
Key Drivers
What Could Flip It
Health & Availability
Away starter
Season stats unavailable
Arsenal unavailable
Source: MLB schedule
Home starter
Season stats unavailable
Arsenal unavailable
Source: MLB schedule
Seattle Mariners holds a 5.6-pt model edge (Washington Nationals 52.1 vs Seattle Mariners 57.7). Confidence 100% (high data). Analysis edge only — not betting advice.
Each score is 0–100, higher = stronger side. Left value / bar = Washington Nationals (home), right value = Seattle Mariners (away).
Probable starter's recent form & expected runs — model weight 25%.
Lineup run production (OPS / xwOBA basis) — model weight 25%.
Seattle Mariners holds a 5.6-pt model edge (Washington Nationals 52.1 vs Seattle Mariners 57.7). Confidence 100% (high data). Analysis edge only — not betting advice.
Last 10 Meetings
Nationals lead 2–1Oldest → most recent · completed MLB games
Relief corps: recent fatigue (50%), ERA (30%), WHIP (20%) — model weight 20%.
Weighted blend — starter 25 · pressure 15 · batting 25 · bullpen 20 · home 5 · data 10.
Analysis edge — not betting advice.